Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
NBA · Sunday, 1 November 2026, 00:30 UK
Oklahoma City Thunder are slight favourites at 63% (Houston Rockets 37%). Projected score HOU 106-110 OKC: OKC by about 4, 215 points in total. OKC -4.5: 49%. Over 215.5: 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 27 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Thunder rate 4.4 points per game better on our numbers (net +8.4 against +4.0), the biggest input in the prediction.
- Expect a lower-scoring game: between them these teams score and concede 6.5 points fewer than an average pairing.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Houston Rockets 37% (fair odds 2.70)
Oklahoma City Thunder 63% (fair odds 1.59)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (OKC)
- OKC -4.549%
- OKC -9.534%
Chance OKC wins by more than the line. Projected margin 4.
Total points
- Over 205.571%
- Over 210.561%
- Over 215.550%
- Over 220.539%
- Over 225.529%
Projected 215, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets | 2828 | 2418 | 2234 | 3232 | 106 112 | ||
| 16 Jan2026 | Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 1921 | 2934 | 2722 | 1634 | 91 111 | ||
| 22 Oct2025 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets | 2730 | 2427 | 2422 | 2925 | 1111 | 109 | 125 124 |
| 05 Apr2025 | Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 3528 | 3425 | 2732 | 2926 | 125 111 | ||
| 04 Mar2025 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets | 3031 | 3331 | 3927 | 3539 | 137 128 | ||
| 15 Dec2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets | 1820 | 2322 | 3427 | 3627 | 111 96 |
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Houston Rockets: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets | 2630 | 2229 | 3333 | 3329 | 114 121 |
| 24 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets | 2732 | 3229 | 2224 | 2929 | 110 114 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Oklahoma City Thunder: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs LA Clippers | 2320 | 2026 | 3430 | 3125 | 108 101 |
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Houston Rockets at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Oklahoma City Thunder on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Next games
Houston Rockets
- 03 Novvs Boston CelticsHOU 57%
- 05 Novvs Minnesota Timberwolves
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 03 Novat Cleveland CavaliersOKC 64%
- 05 Novvs Cleveland Cavaliers
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- Our model makes Oklahoma City Thunder slight favourites at 63%, with a projected score of HOU 106-110 OKC.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- OKC -4.5 covers 49% of the time on our numbers; OKC is projected to win by about 4.
- Over or under?
- We project 215 total points including overtime. Over 215.5: 50%; under: 50%.
More NBA games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.