Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers prediction
NBA · Saturday, 31 October 2026, 00:00 UK
Miami Heat are slight favourites at 64% (Indiana Pacers 36%). Projected score MIA 123-118 IND: MIA by about 5, 241 points in total. MIA -5.5: 47%. Over 241.5: 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 27 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 17.5 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
- Heat rate 3.0 points per game better on our numbers (net −0.6 against −3.6), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Miami Heat 64% (fair odds 1.56)
Indiana Pacers 36% (fair odds 2.78)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (MIA)
- MIA -0.563%
- MIA -5.547%
- MIA -10.533%
Chance MIA wins by more than the line. Projected margin 5.
Total points
- Over 231.570%
- Over 236.560%
- Over 241.549%
- Over 246.538%
- Over 251.528%
Projected 241, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat | 3436 | 4539 | 2932 | 2711 | 135 118 |
| 11 Jan2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat | 3618 | 2527 | 3827 | 2427 | 123 99 |
| 28 Dec2025 | Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers | 2928 | 3032 | 3934 | 4422 | 142 116 |
| 01 Mar2025 | Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers | 2935 | 3934 | 2923 | 2828 | 125 120 |
| 03 Jan2025 | Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers | 2538 | 2528 | 3341 | 3221 | 115 128 |
| 17 Nov2024 | Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat | 2820 | 2429 | 3326 | 3435 | 119 110 |
Miami Heat won 2 (33%)Indiana Pacers won 4 (67%)
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Pistons | 3 | 3 | 0 | 355 | 317 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 4 | 3 | 1 | 440 | 428 | .750 |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | 4 | 3 | 1 | 416 | 444 | .750 |
| 4 | Atlanta Hawks | 3 | 2 | 1 | 374 | 327 | .667 |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 341 | 311 | .667 |
| 6 | Indiana Pacers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 364 | 350 | .667 |
| 7 | Washington Wizards | 4 | 2 | 2 | 457 | 458 | .500 |
| 8 | Boston Celtics | 2 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 224 | .500 |
| 9 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 235 | .500 |
| 10 | Orlando Magic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 329 | 349 | .333 |
| 11 | Chicago Bulls | 3 | 1 | 2 | 344 | 384 | .333 |
| 12 | New York Knicks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 305 | 324 | .000 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 357 | 387 | .000 |
| 14 | Brooklyn Nets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 333 | 371 | .000 |
| 15 | Miami Heat | 3 | 0 | 3 | 327 | 374 | .000 |
Miami Heat: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat | 3131 | 3527 | 3017 | 1935 | 115 110 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons | 2641 | 2724 | 2738 | 3125 | 111 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 3234 | 2735 | 2230 | 2532 | 106 131 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
Indiana Pacers: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers | 2624 | 3041 | 2437 | 2934 | 109 136 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks | 2744 | 1633 | 3321 | 2923 | 105 121 |
| 22 Oct2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers | 3138 | 3518 | 2630 | 2837 | 120 123 |
Won 2 (67%)Lost 1 (33%)
Miami Heat at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons | 2641 | 2724 | 2738 | 3125 | 111 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 3234 | 2735 | 2230 | 2532 | 106 131 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 2 (100%)
Indiana Pacers on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers | 2624 | 3041 | 2437 | 2934 | 109 136 |
| 22 Oct2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers | 3138 | 3518 | 2630 | 2837 | 120 123 |
Won 2 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Next games
Miami Heat
- 03 Novat Los Angeles LakersLAL 60%
- 05 Novat LA Clippers
Indiana Pacers
- 01 Novvs Brooklyn NetsIND 71%
- 03 Novvs Atlanta HawksATL 69%
- 05 Novat Memphis Grizzlies
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers?
- Our model makes Miami Heat slight favourites at 64%, with a projected score of MIA 123-118 IND.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- MIA -5.5 covers 47% of the time on our numbers; MIA is projected to win by about 5.
- Over or under?
- We project 241 total points including overtime. Over 241.5: 49%; under: 51%.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.