Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction
NBA · Saturday, 31 October 2026, 02:00 UK
PickLAL111-116
Los Angeles Lakers are slight favourites at 63% (Golden State Warriors 37%). Projected score GS 111-116 LAL: LAL by about 4, 227 points in total. LAL -4.5: 50%. Over 227.5: 48%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:31 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Lakers rate 6.0 points per game better on our numbers (net +2.7 against −3.3), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Golden State Warriors 37% (fair odds 2.72)
Los Angeles Lakers 63% (fair odds 1.58)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (LAL)
- LAL -4.550%
- LAL -9.535%
Chance LAL wins by more than the line. Projected margin 4.
Total points
- Over 217.570%
- Over 222.559%
- Over 227.548%
- Over 232.538%
- Over 237.528%
Projected 227, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
| 10 Apr2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers | 2328 | 2625 | 2429 | 3037 | 103 119 |
| 01 Mar2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers | 2033 | 2732 | 2534 | 2930 | 101 129 |
| 08 Feb2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 2021 | 2121 | 3829 | 2628 | 105 99 |
| 22 Oct2025 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 2228 | 3227 | 2535 | 3029 | 109 119 |
| 04 Apr2025 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 2226 | 2534 | 3028 | 3935 | 116 123 |
Golden State Warriors won 2 (33%)Los Angeles Lakers won 4 (67%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Golden State Warriors: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies | 3433 | 2227 | 3424 | 1827 | 108 111 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
Los Angeles Lakers: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers | 4729 | 2445 | 2929 | 2329 | 123 132 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs LA Clippers | 2731 | 3733 | 3926 | 2227 | 125 117 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Won 3 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Golden State Warriors at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies | 3433 | 2227 | 3424 | 1827 | 108 111 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Los Angeles Lakers on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers | 4729 | 2445 | 2929 | 2329 | 123 132 |
Won 1 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Next games
Golden State Warriors
- 02 Novvs LA ClippersLAC 59%
- 03 Novvs Phoenix SunsPHX 57%
Los Angeles Lakers
- 02 Novvs Toronto RaptorsLAL 54%
- 03 Novvs Miami HeatLAL 60%
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers?
- Our model makes Los Angeles Lakers slight favourites at 63%, with a projected score of GS 111-116 LAL.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- LAL -4.5 covers 50% of the time on our numbers; LAL is projected to win by about 4.
- Over or under?
- We project 227 total points including overtime. Over 227.5: 48%; under: 52%.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.