Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns prediction
NBA · Tuesday, 3 November 2026, 03:00 UK
Phoenix Suns are slight favourites at 57% (Golden State Warriors 43%). Projected score GS 111-113 PHX: PHX by about 2, 223 points in total. PHX -2.5: 49%. Over 223.5: 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:31 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Suns rate 2.4 points per game better on our numbers (net −1.0 against −3.3), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Golden State Warriors 43% (fair odds 2.32)
Phoenix Suns 57% (fair odds 1.76)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (PHX)
- PHX -2.549%
- PHX -7.534%
Chance PHX wins by more than the line. Projected margin 2.
Total points
- Over 213.571%
- Over 218.560%
- Over 223.550%
- Over 228.539%
- Over 233.529%
Projected 223, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 18 Apr2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 3315 | 1730 | 2824 | 3327 | 111 96 |
| 06 Feb2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2925 | 2634 | 2717 | 1525 | 97 101 |
| 21 Dec2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns | 3244 | 3223 | 2920 | 2629 | 119 116 |
| 19 Dec2025 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2629 | 2024 | 2418 | 2927 | 99 98 |
| 05 Nov2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns | 3319 | 3530 | 2434 | 2624 | 118 107 |
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Golden State Warriors: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies | 3433 | 2227 | 3424 | 1827 | 108 111 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Phoenix Suns: last 2 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns | 4312 | 2927 | 3527 | 1717 | 124 83 |
Golden State Warriors at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies | 3433 | 2227 | 3424 | 1827 | 108 111 |
Phoenix Suns on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns | 4312 | 2927 | 3527 | 1717 | 124 83 |
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns?
- Our model makes Phoenix Suns slight favourites at 57%, with a projected score of GS 111-113 PHX.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- PHX -2.5 covers 49% of the time on our numbers; PHX is projected to win by about 2.
- Over or under?
- We project 223 total points including overtime. Over 223.5: 50%; under: 50%.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.