Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets prediction
NBA · Saturday, 31 October 2026, 00:00 UK
Houston Rockets are favourites at 68% (Dallas Mavericks 32%). Projected score DAL 110-116 HOU: HOU by about 6, 226 points in total. HOU -6.5: 49%. Over 226.5: 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 27 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Rockets rate 7.8 points per game better on our numbers (net +4.0 against −3.8), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Dallas Mavericks 32% (fair odds 3.16)
Houston Rockets 68% (fair odds 1.46)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 5%.
Handicap (HOU)
- HOU -1.564%
- HOU -6.549%
- HOU -11.534%
Chance HOU wins by more than the line. Projected margin 6.
Total points
- Over 216.571%
- Over 221.561%
- Over 226.550%
- Over 231.539%
- Over 236.529%
Projected 226, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
| 01 Feb2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3128 | 2823 | 2831 | 2425 | 111 107 |
| 04 Jan2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets | 2531 | 3219 | 3025 | 2329 | 110 104 |
| 07 Dec2025 | Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets | 2926 | 2831 | 3720 | 2832 | 122 109 |
| 04 Nov2025 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 2428 | 3427 | 2323 | 2924 | 110 102 |
| 15 Mar2025 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 2725 | 3524 | 3721 | 3426 | 133 96 |
Dallas Mavericks won 2 (33%)Houston Rockets won 4 (67%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Dallas Mavericks: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs | 3132 | 2936 | 2924 | 1730 | 106 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks | 2744 | 1633 | 3321 | 2923 | 105 121 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Won 1 (33%)Lost 2 (67%)
Houston Rockets: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets | 2630 | 2229 | 3333 | 3329 | 114 121 |
| 24 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets | 2732 | 3229 | 2224 | 2929 | 110 114 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Won 3 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Dallas Mavericks at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs | 3132 | 2936 | 2924 | 1730 | 106 122 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Houston Rockets on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets | 2630 | 2229 | 3333 | 3329 | 114 121 |
| 24 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets | 2732 | 3229 | 2224 | 2929 | 110 114 |
Won 2 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Next games
Dallas Mavericks
- 03 Novvs Sacramento KingsDAL 65%
- 05 Novat San Antonio Spurs
Houston Rockets
- 01 Novvs Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 63%
- 03 Novvs Boston CelticsHOU 57%
- 05 Novvs Minnesota Timberwolves
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets?
- Our model makes Houston Rockets favourites at 68%, with a projected score of DAL 110-116 HOU.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- HOU -6.5 covers 49% of the time on our numbers; HOU is projected to win by about 6.
- Over or under?
- We project 226 total points including overtime. Over 226.5: 50%; under: 50%.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.