Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors prediction
NBA · Thursday, 29 October 2026, 00:00 UK
PickMIN117-108
Minnesota Timberwolves are favourites at 77% (Golden State Warriors 24%). Projected score MIN 117-108 GS: MIN by about 9, 226 points in total. MIN -9.5: 50%. Over 226.5: 48%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:31 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Timberwolves rate 7.7 points per game better on our numbers (net +4.4 against −3.3), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Minnesota Timberwolves 77% (fair odds 1.31)
Golden State Warriors 24% (fair odds 4.26)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 5%.
Handicap (MIN)
- MIN -4.565%
- MIN -9.550%
- MIN -14.535%
Chance MIN wins by more than the line. Projected margin 9.
Total points
- Over 216.569%
- Over 221.559%
- Over 226.548%
- Over 231.537%
- Over 236.527%
Projected 226, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 2831 | 2038 | 3931 | 3027 | 117 127 |
| 27 Jan2026 | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors | 2120 | 3218 | 2219 | 3326 | 108 83 |
| 25 Jan2026 | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors | 1924 | 2723 | 1738 | 2226 | 85 111 |
| 13 Dec2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 2728 | 3633 | 2827 | 2939 | 120 127 |
| 15 May2025 | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors | 3023 | 3224 | 3125 | 2838 | 121 110 |
| 13 May2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 2827 | 3231 | 1739 | 3320 | 110 117 |
Minnesota Timberwolves won 5 (83%)Golden State Warriors won 1 (17%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Minnesota Timberwolves: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Toronto Raptors | 3221 | 2326 | 3515 | 2732 | 117 94 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Orlando Magic vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 2026 | 2531 | 1529 | 3329 | 93 115 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 3234 | 2735 | 2230 | 2532 | 106 131 |
Won 3 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Golden State Warriors: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies | 3433 | 2227 | 3424 | 1827 | 108 111 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
Minnesota Timberwolves at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Toronto Raptors | 3221 | 2326 | 3515 | 2732 | 117 94 |
Won 1 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Golden State Warriors on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 2 (100%)
Next games
Minnesota Timberwolves
- 31 Octvs LA ClippersMIN 64%
- 01 Novat San Antonio SpursSA 70%
- 03 Novvs Milwaukee BucksMIN 84%
Golden State Warriors
- 31 Octvs Los Angeles LakersLAL 63%
- 02 Novvs LA ClippersLAC 59%
- 03 Novvs Phoenix SunsPHX 57%
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors?
- Our model makes Minnesota Timberwolves favourites at 77%, with a projected score of MIN 117-108 GS.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- MIN -9.5 covers 50% of the time on our numbers; MIN is projected to win by about 9.
- Over or under?
- We project 226 total points including overtime. Over 226.5: 48%; under: 52%.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.