Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
NBA · Thursday, 29 October 2026, 01:30 UK
PickOKC108-119
Oklahoma City Thunder are favourites at 79% (Dallas Mavericks 21%). Projected score DAL 108-119 OKC: OKC by about 11, 227 points in total. OKC -11.5: 47%. Over 227.5: 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 27 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Thunder rate 12.2 points per game better on our numbers (net +8.4 against −3.8), the biggest input in the prediction.
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 4.3 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Dallas Mavericks 21% (fair odds 4.82)
Oklahoma City Thunder 79% (fair odds 1.26)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 4%.
Handicap (OKC)
- OKC -6.562%
- OKC -11.547%
- OKC -16.532%
Chance OKC wins by more than the line. Projected margin 11.
Total points
- Over 217.571%
- Over 222.561%
- Over 227.550%
- Over 232.539%
- Over 237.529%
Projected 227, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2536 | 2422 | 2025 | 1817 | 87 100 |
| 06 Dec2025 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks | 2727 | 3621 | 4126 | 2837 | 132 111 |
| 28 Oct2025 | Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2428 | 1820 | 2739 | 2514 | 94 101 |
| 24 Jan2025 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks | 3433 | 2827 | 2131 | 3230 | 115 121 |
| 18 Jan2025 | Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2226 | 4117 | 1433 | 2922 | 106 98 |
| 11 Dec2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks | 3224 | 2530 | 3319 | 2831 | 118 104 |
Dallas Mavericks won 2 (33%)Oklahoma City Thunder won 4 (67%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Dallas Mavericks: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs | 3132 | 2936 | 2924 | 1730 | 106 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks | 2744 | 1633 | 3321 | 2923 | 105 121 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Won 1 (33%)Lost 2 (67%)
Oklahoma City Thunder: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs LA Clippers | 2320 | 2026 | 3430 | 3125 | 108 101 |
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Won 3 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Dallas Mavericks at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs | 3132 | 2936 | 2924 | 1730 | 106 122 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Oklahoma City Thunder on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Won 1 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Next games
Dallas Mavericks
- 31 Octvs Houston RocketsHOU 68%
- 03 Novvs Sacramento KingsDAL 65%
- 05 Novat San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 01 Novat Houston RocketsOKC 63%
- 03 Novat Cleveland CavaliersOKC 64%
- 05 Novvs Cleveland Cavaliers
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- Our model makes Oklahoma City Thunder favourites at 79%, with a projected score of DAL 108-119 OKC.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- OKC -11.5 covers 47% of the time on our numbers; OKC is projected to win by about 11.
- Over or under?
- We project 227 total points including overtime. Over 227.5: 50%; under: 50%.
More NBA games
- Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards
- Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets
- Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
- Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic
- Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
- Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors
- New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets
- Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs
- LA Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.