New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets prediction
NBA · Thursday, 29 October 2026, 00:00 UK
Denver Nuggets are slight favourites at 60% (New Orleans Pelicans 40%). Projected score NO 116-119 DEN: DEN by about 3, 235 points in total. DEN -3.5: 50%. Over 235.5: 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 27 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 11.6 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
- Nuggets rate 5.0 points per game better on our numbers (net +2.8 against −2.1), the biggest input in the prediction.
- Nuggets won all of the last 6 meetings.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
New Orleans Pelicans 40% (fair odds 2.51)
Denver Nuggets 60% (fair odds 1.66)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (DEN)
- DEN -3.550%
- DEN -8.535%
Chance DEN wins by more than the line. Projected margin 3.
Total points
- Over 225.570%
- Over 230.560%
- Over 235.549%
- Over 240.538%
- Over 245.528%
Projected 235, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2438 | 3335 | 3235 | 3718 | 159 | 141 135 |
| 14 Jan2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets | 3132 | 3428 | 2729 | 2433 | 116 122 | |
| 20 Nov2025 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets | 3026 | 2836 | 2535 | 3528 | 118 125 | |
| 30 Oct2025 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 3425 | 1922 | 3911 | 3030 | 122 88 | |
| 06 Feb2025 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 3636 | 3232 | 4527 | 3124 | 144 119 | |
| 04 Feb2025 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 3323 | 3527 | 2535 | 3228 | 125 113 |
New Orleans Pelicans won 0 (0%)Denver Nuggets won 6 (100%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
New Orleans Pelicans: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2438 | 3335 | 3235 | 3718 | 159 | 141 135 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans | 3128 | 3124 | 2438 | 3429 | 120 119 | |
| 22 Oct2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers | 3138 | 3518 | 2630 | 2837 | 120 123 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
Denver Nuggets: last 2 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2438 | 3335 | 3235 | 3718 | 159 | 141 135 |
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
Won 1 (50%)Lost 1 (50%)
New Orleans Pelicans at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers | 3138 | 3518 | 2630 | 2837 | 120 123 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Denver Nuggets on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Next games
New Orleans Pelicans
- 30 Octvs Sacramento KingsNO 66%
- 31 Octvs Atlanta HawksATL 61%
- 03 Novat Memphis GrizzliesNO 57%
Denver Nuggets
- 31 Octat Phoenix SunsDEN 57%
- 03 Novvs Portland Trail BlazersDEN 55%
- 05 Novvs Toronto Raptors
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets?
- Our model makes Denver Nuggets slight favourites at 60%, with a projected score of NO 116-119 DEN.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- DEN -3.5 covers 50% of the time on our numbers; DEN is projected to win by about 3.
- Over or under?
- We project 235 total points including overtime. Over 235.5: 49%; under: 51%.
More NBA games
- Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards
- Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets
- Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
- Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic
- Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
- Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors
- Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs
- Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- LA Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.