Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas prediction
EuroLeague · Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 19:30 UK
Zalgiris Kaunas are slight favourites at 50% (Virtus Bologna 50%). Projected score VIR 86-86 ZAL: ZAL by about 1, 171 points in total. ZAL -0.5: 48%. Over 171.5: 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:32 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Kaunas rate 3.4 points per game better on our numbers (net +1.1 against −2.3), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Virtus Bologna 50% (fair odds 2.00)
Zalgiris Kaunas 50% (fair odds 2.00)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 5%.
Handicap (ZAL)
- ZAL -0.548%
- ZAL -5.532%
Chance ZAL wins by more than the line. Projected margin 1.
Total points
- Over 161.573%
- Over 166.561%
- Over 171.549%
- Over 176.537%
- Over 181.526%
Projected 171, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan2026 | Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 2522 | 1812 | 2022 | 2023 | 83 79 |
| 28 Oct2025 | Zalgiris Kaunas vs Virtus Bologna | 2511 | 1722 | 1617 | 2815 | 86 65 |
| 15 Jan2025 | Zalgiris Kaunas vs Virtus Bologna | 2513 | 1619 | 2019 | 1617 | 77 68 |
| 15 Oct2024 | Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 1516 | 1528 | 2216 | 1611 | 68 71 |
| 19 Mar2024 | Zalgiris Kaunas vs Virtus Bologna | 2222 | 2127 | 2514 | 2818 | 96 81 |
| 05 Oct2023 | Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 2315 | 1922 | 2321 | 1424 | 79 82 |
Virtus Bologna won 1 (17%)Zalgiris Kaunas won 5 (83%)
EuroLeague table
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 7 | 6 | 1 | 613 | 517 | .857 |
| 2 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 7 | 6 | 1 | 565 | 508 | .857 |
| 3 | Valencia Basket | 7 | 5 | 2 | 694 | 642 | .714 |
| 4 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 2 | 650 | 603 | .714 |
| 5 | Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 7 | 5 | 2 | 630 | 601 | .714 |
| 6 | Dubai Basketball | 7 | 5 | 2 | 597 | 584 | .714 |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 7 | 4 | 3 | 667 | 630 | .571 |
| 8 | Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 7 | 4 | 3 | 567 | 542 | .571 |
| 9 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 4 | 3 | 631 | 619 | .571 |
| 10 | Virtus Bologna | 7 | 4 | 3 | 606 | 608 | .571 |
| 11 | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 7 | 4 | 3 | 551 | 553 | .571 |
| 12 | Zalgiris Kaunas | 7 | 3 | 4 | 595 | 602 | .429 |
| 13 | Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 7 | 3 | 4 | 581 | 590 | .429 |
| 14 | Besiktas Istanbul | 7 | 3 | 4 | 634 | 644 | .429 |
| 15 | Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv | 7 | 2 | 5 | 608 | 653 | .286 |
| 16 | FC Bayern Munich | 7 | 2 | 5 | 612 | 659 | .286 |
| 17 | LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 7 | 2 | 5 | 612 | 677 | .286 |
| 18 | Paris Basketball | 7 | 1 | 6 | 597 | 649 | .143 |
| 19 | Armani Olimpia Milan | 7 | 1 | 6 | 585 | 648 | .143 |
| 20 | Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 7 | 1 | 6 | 583 | 649 | .143 |
Virtus Bologna: last 6 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct2026 | Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Virtus Bologna | 2325 | 1323 | 2814 | 2619 | 90 81 |
| 16 Oct2026 | Virtus Bologna vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 2412 | 2222 | 2219 | 1825 | 86 78 |
| 14 Oct2026 | Paris Basketball vs Virtus Bologna | 2626 | 1220 | 2718 | 2932 | 94 96 |
| 08 Oct2026 | FC Bayern Munich vs Virtus Bologna | 2135 | 2217 | 2523 | 1919 | 87 94 |
| 01 Oct2026 | Virtus Bologna vs Olympiacos Piraeus | 3330 | 1620 | 2620 | 2124 | 96 94 |
| 29 Sept2026 | Armani Olimpia Milan vs Virtus Bologna | 3020 | 1721 | 1926 | 2118 | 87 85 |
Won 4 (67%)Lost 2 (33%)
Zalgiris Kaunas: last 6 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct2026 | Zalgiris Kaunas vs LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 2920 | 2114 | 3125 | 2426 | 105 85 |
| 16 Oct2026 | Zalgiris Kaunas vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 1221 | 2421 | 2025 | 1418 | 70 85 |
| 13 Oct2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 2714 | 2329 | 2813 | 2124 | 99 80 |
| 09 Oct2026 | FC Barcelona vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 1823 | 2316 | 2416 | 1633 | 81 88 |
| 01 Oct2026 | Paris Basketball vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 1719 | 2419 | 2015 | 2125 | 82 78 |
| 29 Sept2026 | Zalgiris Kaunas vs Olympiacos Piraeus | 2421 | 2023 | 1920 | 2829 | 91 93 |
Won 2 (33%)Lost 4 (67%)
Virtus Bologna at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct2026 | Virtus Bologna vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 2412 | 2222 | 2219 | 1825 | 86 78 |
| 01 Oct2026 | Virtus Bologna vs Olympiacos Piraeus | 3330 | 1620 | 2620 | 2124 | 96 94 |
Won 2 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Zalgiris Kaunas on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 2714 | 2329 | 2813 | 2124 | 99 80 |
| 09 Oct2026 | FC Barcelona vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 1823 | 2316 | 2416 | 1633 | 81 88 |
| 01 Oct2026 | Paris Basketball vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 1719 | 2419 | 2015 | 2125 | 82 78 |
| 24 Sept2026 | Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 2128 | 2415 | 1216 | 2024 | 77 83 |
Won 2 (50%)Lost 2 (50%)
Next games
Virtus Bologna
- 30 Octvs Besiktas IstanbulVIR 56%
- 06 Novvs Dubai Basketball
- 13 Novat Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Zalgiris Kaunas
- 30 Octvs Partizan Mozzart Bet BelgradeZAL 67%
- 06 Novat Besiktas Istanbul
- 12 Novat Armani Olimpia Milan
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas?
- Our model makes Zalgiris Kaunas slight favourites at 50%, with a projected score of VIR 86-86 ZAL.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- ZAL -0.5 covers 48% of the time on our numbers; ZAL is projected to win by about 1.
- Over or under?
- We project 171 total points including overtime. Over 171.5: 49%; under: 51%.
More EuroLeague games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.