San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings prediction
NBA · Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 00:00 UK
San Antonio Spurs are favourites at 90% (Sacramento Kings 10%). Projected score SA 122-105 SAC: SA by about 17, 228 points in total. SA -17.5: 48%. Over 228.5: 48%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:31 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Spurs rate 15.3 points per game better on our numbers (net +8.1 against −7.2), the biggest input in the prediction.
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 4.8 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
San Antonio Spurs 90% (fair odds 1.11)
Sacramento Kings 10% (fair odds 10.00)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 3%.
Handicap (SA)
- SA -12.563%
- SA -17.548%
- SA -22.533%
Chance SA wins by more than the line. Projected margin 17.
Total points
- Over 218.569%
- Over 223.559%
- Over 228.548%
- Over 233.537%
- Over 238.527%
Projected 228, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar2026 | Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs | 2239 | 2539 | 3434 | 2320 | 104 132 |
| 22 Feb2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings | 3531 | 3834 | 3229 | 3428 | 139 122 |
| 16 Nov2025 | San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings | 3624 | 3135 | 2826 | 2825 | 123 110 |
| 08 Mar2025 | Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs | 2026 | 3616 | 3934 | 3233 | 127 109 |
| 07 Dec2024 | San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings | 3333 | 2636 | 2731 | 2740 | 113 140 |
| 02 Dec2024 | Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs | 4228 | 2330 | 3234 | 2835 | 125 127 |
San Antonio Spurs won 4 (67%)Sacramento Kings won 2 (33%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
San Antonio Spurs: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs | 3132 | 2936 | 2924 | 1730 | 106 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets | 2732 | 3229 | 2224 | 2929 | 110 114 |
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Won 1 (33%)Lost 2 (67%)
Sacramento Kings: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct2026 | Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies | 2825 | 3142 | 3129 | 2227 | 112 123 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers | 3327 | 3132 | 2644 | 3025 | 120 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | LA Clippers vs Sacramento Kings | 4129 | 2025 | 3216 | 2826 | 121 96 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
San Antonio Spurs at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets | 2732 | 3229 | 2224 | 2929 | 110 114 |
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 2 (100%)
Sacramento Kings on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | LA Clippers vs Sacramento Kings | 4129 | 2025 | 3216 | 2826 | 121 96 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Next games
San Antonio Spurs
- 29 Octat Utah JazzSA 82%
- 01 Novvs Minnesota TimberwolvesSA 70%
- 03 Novvs Utah JazzSA 90%
Sacramento Kings
- 30 Octat New Orleans PelicansNO 66%
- 01 Novat Memphis GrizzliesMEM 59%
- 03 Novat Dallas MavericksDAL 65%
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings?
- Our model makes San Antonio Spurs favourites at 90%, with a projected score of SA 122-105 SAC.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- SA -17.5 covers 48% of the time on our numbers; SA is projected to win by about 17.
- Over or under?
- We project 228 total points including overtime. Over 228.5: 48%; under: 52%.
More NBA games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.