Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns prediction
NBA · Tuesday, 27 October 2026, 00:00 UK
Oklahoma City Thunder are favourites at 77% (Phoenix Suns 23%). Projected score OKC 114-104 PHX: OKC by about 9, 218 points in total. OKC -9.5: 50%. Over 218.5: 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Thunder rate 9.3 points per game better on our numbers (net +8.4 against −1.0), the biggest input in the prediction.
- Thunder played last night: the second night of a back-to-back costs an NBA team about 1.5 points on average.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Oklahoma City Thunder 77% (fair odds 1.30)
Phoenix Suns 23% (fair odds 4.29)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 5%.
Handicap (OKC)
- OKC -4.565%
- OKC -9.550%
- OKC -14.535%
Chance OKC wins by more than the line. Projected margin 9.
Total points
- Over 208.570%
- Over 213.560%
- Over 218.549%
- Over 223.538%
- Over 228.528%
Projected 218, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 3337 | 3438 | 3131 | 2425 | 122 131 |
| 25 Apr2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2833 | 2529 | 2625 | 3034 | 109 121 |
| 23 Apr2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns | 3029 | 3528 | 3520 | 2030 | 120 107 |
| 19 Apr2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns | 3520 | 3024 | 3222 | 2218 | 119 84 |
| 13 Apr2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns | 1937 | 3333 | 2534 | 2631 | 103 135 |
| 12 Feb2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2537 | 2738 | 2837 | 2924 | 109 136 |
Oklahoma City Thunder won 5 (83%)Phoenix Suns won 1 (17%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Oklahoma City Thunder: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs LA Clippers | 2320 | 2026 | 3430 | 3125 | 108 101 |
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
| 21 Oct2026 | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 2834 | 1631 | 3628 | 2423 | 104 116 |
Won 3 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Phoenix Suns: last 2 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns | 4312 | 2927 | 3527 | 1717 | 124 83 |
Won 1 (50%)Lost 1 (50%)
Oklahoma City Thunder at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs LA Clippers | 2320 | 2026 | 3430 | 3125 | 108 101 |
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
Won 2 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Phoenix Suns on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns | 4312 | 2927 | 3527 | 1717 | 124 83 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Next games
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 29 Octat Dallas MavericksOKC 79%
- 01 Novat Houston RocketsOKC 63%
- 03 Novat Cleveland CavaliersOKC 64%
Phoenix Suns
- 31 Octvs Denver NuggetsDEN 57%
- 03 Novat Golden State WarriorsPHX 57%
- 05 Novvs Portland Trail Blazers
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns?
- Our model makes Oklahoma City Thunder favourites at 77%, with a projected score of OKC 114-104 PHX.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- OKC -9.5 covers 50% of the time on our numbers; OKC is projected to win by about 9.
- Over or under?
- We project 218 total points including overtime. Over 218.5: 49%; under: 51%.
More NBA games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.