Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
NBA · Monday, 26 October 2026, 23:30 UK
Miami Heat are slight favourites at 65% (Dallas Mavericks 35%). Projected score MIA 123-118 DAL: MIA by about 5, 241 points in total. MIA -5.5: 48%. Over 241.5: 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 17.5 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
- Heat rate 3.2 points per game better on our numbers (net −0.6 against −3.8), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Miami Heat 65% (fair odds 1.55)
Dallas Mavericks 35% (fair odds 2.83)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (MIA)
- MIA -0.563%
- MIA -5.548%
- MIA -10.533%
Chance MIA wins by more than the line. Projected margin 5.
Total points
- Over 231.570%
- Over 236.560%
- Over 241.549%
- Over 246.538%
- Over 251.528%
Projected 241, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec2025 | Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat | 2833 | 3621 | 2926 | 2528 | 118 108 | |
| 25 Nov2025 | Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks | 2019 | 3225 | 2828 | 2630 | 106 102 | |
| 14 Feb2025 | Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat | 2122 | 3434 | 2927 | 3430 | 118 113 | |
| 24 Nov2024 | Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks | 3328 | 2323 | 3333 | 2530 | 94 | 123 118 |
| 11 Apr2024 | Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks | 2433 | 2336 | 2719 | 1823 | 92 111 | |
| 08 Mar2024 | Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat | 2836 | 2622 | 3725 | 2325 | 114 108 |
Eastern Conference
Dallas Mavericks play in the other conference: 1-2, 11 in the Western.
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Pistons | 3 | 3 | 0 | 355 | 317 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 4 | 3 | 1 | 440 | 428 | .750 |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | 4 | 3 | 1 | 416 | 444 | .750 |
| 4 | Atlanta Hawks | 3 | 2 | 1 | 374 | 327 | .667 |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 341 | 311 | .667 |
| 6 | Indiana Pacers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 364 | 350 | .667 |
| 7 | Washington Wizards | 4 | 2 | 2 | 457 | 458 | .500 |
| 8 | Boston Celtics | 2 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 224 | .500 |
| 9 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 235 | .500 |
| 10 | Orlando Magic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 329 | 349 | .333 |
| 11 | Chicago Bulls | 3 | 1 | 2 | 344 | 384 | .333 |
| 12 | New York Knicks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 305 | 324 | .000 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 357 | 387 | .000 |
| 14 | Brooklyn Nets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 333 | 371 | .000 |
| 15 | Miami Heat | 3 | 0 | 3 | 327 | 374 | .000 |
Miami Heat: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat | 3131 | 3527 | 3017 | 1935 | 115 110 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons | 2641 | 2724 | 2738 | 3125 | 111 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 3234 | 2735 | 2230 | 2532 | 106 131 |
Dallas Mavericks: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs | 3132 | 2936 | 2924 | 1730 | 106 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks | 2744 | 1633 | 3321 | 2923 | 105 121 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Miami Heat at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons | 2641 | 2724 | 2738 | 3125 | 111 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 3234 | 2735 | 2230 | 2532 | 106 131 |
Dallas Mavericks on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks | 2744 | 1633 | 3321 | 2923 | 105 121 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks | 3226 | 3812 | 3038 | 2834 | 128 110 |
Next games
Miami Heat
- 28 Octat Atlanta HawksATL 66%
- 31 Octvs Indiana PacersMIA 64%
- 03 Novat Los Angeles LakersLAL 60%
Dallas Mavericks
- 29 Octvs Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 79%
- 31 Octvs Houston RocketsHOU 68%
- 03 Novvs Sacramento KingsDAL 65%
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks?
- Our model makes Miami Heat slight favourites at 65%, with a projected score of MIA 123-118 DAL.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- MIA -5.5 covers 48% of the time on our numbers; MIA is projected to win by about 5.
- Over or under?
- We project 241 total points including overtime. Over 241.5: 49%; under: 51%.
More NBA games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.