Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors prediction
NBA · Tuesday, 27 October 2026, 02:00 UK
PickDEN119-111
Denver Nuggets are favourites at 73% (Golden State Warriors 27%). Projected score DEN 119-111 GS: DEN by about 8, 230 points in total. DEN -8.5: 48%. Over 230.5: 48%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:31 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Nuggets rate 6.2 points per game better on our numbers (net +2.8 against −3.3), the biggest input in the prediction.
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 6.3 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Denver Nuggets 73% (fair odds 1.38)
Golden State Warriors 27% (fair odds 3.65)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 5%.
Handicap (DEN)
- DEN -3.563%
- DEN -8.548%
- DEN -13.533%
Chance DEN wins by more than the line. Projected margin 8.
Total points
- Over 220.569%
- Over 225.559%
- Over 230.548%
- Over 235.537%
- Over 240.527%
Projected 230, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar2026 | Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors | 2328 | 2325 | 4021 | 3019 | 116 93 | |
| 22 Feb2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets | 3927 | 3740 | 1934 | 3316 | 128 117 | |
| 08 Nov2025 | Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors | 3221 | 3428 | 3328 | 3027 | 129 104 | |
| 24 Oct2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets | 2731 | 3439 | 3324 | 2626 | 1711 | 137 131 |
| 05 Apr2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets | 3444 | 3216 | 3024 | 2220 | 118 104 | |
| 18 Mar2025 | Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets | 2229 | 2833 | 2727 | 2825 | 105 114 |
Denver Nuggets won 3 (50%)Golden State Warriors won 3 (50%)
Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
Denver Nuggets: last 2 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2438 | 3335 | 3235 | 3718 | 159 | 141 135 |
| 23 Oct2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets | 2427 | 2021 | 2616 | 2620 | 96 84 |
Won 1 (50%)Lost 1 (50%)
Golden State Warriors: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies | 3433 | 2227 | 3424 | 1827 | 108 111 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
Denver Nuggets at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2438 | 3335 | 3235 | 3718 | 159 | 141 135 |
Won 1 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
Golden State Warriors on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors | 2225 | 3529 | 4538 | 2930 | 131 122 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors | 3433 | 3219 | 3616 | 2537 | 127 105 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 2 (100%)
Next games
Denver Nuggets
- 29 Octat New Orleans PelicansDEN 60%
- 31 Octat Phoenix SunsDEN 57%
- 03 Novvs Portland Trail BlazersDEN 55%
Golden State Warriors
- 29 Octat Minnesota TimberwolvesMIN 77%
- 31 Octvs Los Angeles LakersLAL 63%
- 02 Novvs LA ClippersLAC 59%
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors?
- Our model makes Denver Nuggets favourites at 73%, with a projected score of DEN 119-111 GS.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- DEN -8.5 covers 48% of the time on our numbers; DEN is projected to win by about 8.
- Over or under?
- We project 230 total points including overtime. Over 230.5: 48%; under: 52%.
More NBA games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.