Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba prediction

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · W Strawweight

USA · 13-1-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 5 SUB, 3 DEC71%

PickSuarezDEC

Brazil · 23-4-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB, 5 DEC29%

Tatiana Suarez is the favourite at 71%. The likeliest single outcome is Tatiana Suarez by decision (44%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 63%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Suarez's rating, built from every UFC result, is 49 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
Suarez wrestles more, averaging 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes to 3.0.
Suarez is harder to hit, absorbing 1.9 significant strikes a minute to 2.9.
Suarez has a 5 cm reach advantage (168 cm vs 163 cm).

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Tatiana Suarez: 71% to win

KO/TKO5% overall
Submission22% overall
Decision44% overall

Virna Jandiroba: 29% to win

KO/TKO3% overall
Submission7% overall
Decision19% overall

Goes the distance: 63% · Fair odds: Tatiana Suarez 1.42, Virna Jandiroba 3.39. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Tatiana Suarez	Tale of the tape	Virna Jandiroba
13-1-0	Record	23-4-0
USA	Nationality	Brazil
10	UFC fights	13
35	Age	38
165 cm	Height	160 cm
168 cm	Reach	163 cm
Southpaw	Stance	Orthodox
1 / 5 / 3	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 3 / 5
0 / 0 / 1	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 4
2.9	Sig. strikes landed per minute	2.4
1.9	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.9
4.2	Takedowns per 15 minutes	3.0
0.04	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.10

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Tatiana Suarez: last UFC fights

2026-04-11vs Loopy Godínez R2 2:29W SUB
2025-09-13vs Amanda Lemos R3 5:00W DEC
2025-02-09vs Zhang Weili R5 5:00L DEC
2023-08-06vs Jessica Andrade R2 1:31W SUB
2023-02-26vs Montana De La Rosa R2 2:51W SUB

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

Virna Jandiroba: last UFC fights

2026-04-05vs Tabatha Ricci R3 5:00W DEC
2025-10-25vs Mackenzie Dern R5 5:00L DEC
2025-04-13vs Yan Xiaonan R3 5:00W DEC
2024-07-21vs Amanda Lemos R2 4:48W SUB
2024-03-30vs Loopy Godínez R3 5:00W DEC

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba?: Our model makes Tatiana Suarez the favourite at 71%, with Virna Jandiroba at 29%.
How will Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba end?: The chance it goes the distance is 63%. If Tatiana Suarez wins, the likeliest route is decision (63% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Tatiana Suarez 1.42, Virna Jandiroba 3.39: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.