Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith prediction

What the numbers show

• Smith is the younger fighter: 24 against 40 on fight night.
• Grant is far more experienced in the UFC: 16 fights to 4.
• Smith wrestles more, averaging 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.8.
• Smith's rating, built from every UFC result, is 49 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 53% · Fair odds: Davey Grant 4.94, Elijah Smith 1.25. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Davey Grant	Tale of the tape	Elijah Smith
18-8-0	Record	10-1-0
England	Nationality	USA
16	UFC fights	4
40	Age	24
173 cm	Height	175 cm
175 cm	Reach	180 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
3 / 1 / 5	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 1 / 2
0 / 4 / 3	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
5.2	Sig. strikes landed per minute	4.0
3.9	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.1
0.8	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.6
0.31	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.36

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith?

Our model makes Elijah Smith the favourite at 80%, with Davey Grant at 20%.

How will Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith end?

The chance it goes the distance is 53%. If Elijah Smith wins, the likeliest route is decision (52% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Davey Grant 4.94, Elijah Smith 1.25: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.