Wes Schultz vs Mantas Kondratavičius prediction

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Middleweight

USA · 9-4-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 2 SUB, 0 DEC30%

PickKondratavičiusKO/TKO

Lithuania · 9-1-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC70%

Mantas Kondratavičius is the favourite at 70%. The likeliest single outcome is Mantas Kondratavičius by KO/TKO (42%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 33%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Kondratavičius's rating, built from every UFC result, is 70 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
Kondratavičius is harder to hit, absorbing 2.4 significant strikes a minute to 3.8.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Wes Schultz: 30% to win

KO/TKO10% overall
Submission11% overall
Decision9% overall

Mantas Kondratavičius: 70% to win

KO/TKO42% overall
Submission5% overall
Decision23% overall

Goes the distance: 33% · Fair odds: Wes Schultz 3.34, Mantas Kondratavičius 1.43. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Wes Schultz	Tale of the tape	Mantas Kondratavičius
9-4-0	Record	9-1-0
USA	Nationality	Lithuania
5	UFC fights	2
30	Age	27
188 cm	Height	188 cm
196 cm	Reach	192 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
0 / 2 / 0	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 1
3 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
3.4	Sig. strikes landed per minute	4.3
3.8	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.4
2.2	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.2
0.78	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	1.12

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Wes Schultz: last UFC fights

2026-08-22vs Jackson McVey R1 4:13L KO/TKO
2026-05-02vs Ben Johnston R3 1:50W SUB
2026-02-28vs Damian Pinas R1 2:30L KO/TKO
2025-10-15vs Mario Mingaj R1 1:51W SUB
2024-08-13vs Mansur Abdul-Malik R2 3:55L KO/TKO

Won 2 (40%)Lost 3 (60%)

Mantas Kondratavičius: last UFC fights

2026-03-21vs Antonio Trocoli R3 5:00W DEC
2025-09-24vs Djani Barbir R1 1:06W KO/TKO

Won 2 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Wes Schultz vs Mantas Kondratavičius?: Our model makes Mantas Kondratavičius the favourite at 70%, with Wes Schultz at 30%.
How will Wes Schultz vs Mantas Kondratavičius end?: The chance it goes the distance is 33%. If Mantas Kondratavičius wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (60% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Wes Schultz 3.34, Mantas Kondratavičius 1.43: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.