Gabriel Lorenço vs Alvin Hines prediction

What the numbers show

• Lorenço is harder to hit, absorbing 3.6 significant strikes a minute to 5.7.
• Lorenço's rating, built from every UFC result, is 77 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
• Lorenço is the younger fighter: 27 against 35 on fight night.
• Lorenço has a 5 cm reach advantage (193 cm vs 188 cm).

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 27% · Fair odds: Gabriel Lorenço 1.26, Alvin Hines 4.84. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Gabriel Lorenço	Tale of the tape	Alvin Hines
8-1-0	Record	7-2-0
Brazil	Nationality	USA
1	UFC fights	2
27	Age	35
191 cm	Height	188 cm
193 cm	Reach	188 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
1 / 0 / 0	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
0 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 1
4.3	Sig. strikes landed per minute	4.6
3.6	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	5.7
1.3	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.2
2.04	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.15

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Gabriel Lorenço vs Alvin Hines?

Our model makes Gabriel Lorenço the favourite at 79%, with Alvin Hines at 21%.

How will Gabriel Lorenço vs Alvin Hines end?

The chance it goes the distance is 27%. If Gabriel Lorenço wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (71% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Gabriel Lorenço 1.26, Alvin Hines 4.84: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.