Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese prediction

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Middleweight

USA · 7-7-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 5 SUB, 1 DEC29%

PickReeseDEC

USA · 10-4-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC71%

Zach Reese is the favourite at 71%. The likeliest single outcome is Zach Reese by decision (35%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 43%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Gall has not fought in the UFC since November 2024.
Reese wrestles more, averaging 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes to 1.2.
Reese has a 8 cm reach advantage (188 cm vs 196 cm).

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Mickey Gall: 29% to win

KO/TKO11% overall
Submission11% overall
Decision8% overall

Zach Reese: 71% to win

KO/TKO23% overall
Submission12% overall
Decision35% overall

Goes the distance: 43% · Fair odds: Mickey Gall 3.43, Zach Reese 1.41. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Mickey Gall	Tale of the tape	Zach Reese
7-7-0	Record	10-4-0
USA	Nationality	USA
13	UFC fights	10
34	Age	32
188 cm	Height	193 cm
188 cm	Reach	196 cm
Switch	Stance	Switch
0 / 5 / 1	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 2 / 2
3 / 0 / 4	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	3 / 0 / 1
3.5	Sig. strikes landed per minute	4.3
4.6	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.9
1.2	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.5
0.29	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.26

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Mickey Gall: last UFC fights

2024-11-16vs Ramiz Brahimaj R1 2:55L KO/TKO
2024-06-01vs Bassil Hafez R3 5:00L DEC
2022-04-10vs Mike Malott R1 3:41L KO/TKO
2021-12-05vs Alex Morono R3 5:00L DEC
2021-07-24vs Jordan Williams R1 2:57W SUB

Won 1 (20%)Lost 4 (80%)

Zach Reese: last UFC fights

2026-07-11vs Ryan Gandra R1 1:15L KO/TKO
2026-02-22vs Michel Pereira R3 5:00L DEC
2025-11-08vs Jackson McVey R2 1:38W SUB
2025-09-13vs Sedriques Dumas R1 0:51NC
2025-06-01vs Duško Todorović R3 5:00W DEC

Won 2 (50%)Lost 2 (50%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese?: Our model makes Zach Reese the favourite at 71%, with Mickey Gall at 29%.
How will Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese end?: The chance it goes the distance is 43%. If Zach Reese wins, the likeliest route is decision (50% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Mickey Gall 3.43, Zach Reese 1.41: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.