Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee prediction

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Featherweight

USA · 31-14-0UFC wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB, 3 DEC51%

PickErosaDEC

South Korea · 11-3-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC49%

Julian Erosa is the slight favourite at 51%. The likeliest single outcome is JeongYeong Lee by decision (24%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 47%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Erosa lands more: 5.9 significant strikes a minute to 3.3.
Erosa is far more experienced in the UFC: 19 fights to 4.
Lee is harder to hit, absorbing 3.7 significant strikes a minute to 6.1.
Lee has not fought in the UFC since May 2025.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Julian Erosa: 51% to win

KO/TKO17% overall
Submission11% overall
Decision23% overall

JeongYeong Lee: 49% to win

KO/TKO22% overall
Submission3% overall
Decision24% overall

Goes the distance: 47% · Fair odds: Julian Erosa 1.96, JeongYeong Lee 2.04. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Julian Erosa	Tale of the tape	JeongYeong Lee
31-14-0	Record	11-3-0
USA	Nationality	South Korea
19	UFC fights	4
37	Age	30
185 cm	Height	178 cm
189 cm	Reach	187 cm
Southpaw	Stance	Orthodox
3 / 4 / 3	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 2
7 / 0 / 2	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 1
5.9	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.3
6.1	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.7
1.7	Takedowns per 15 minutes	0.9
0.21	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.08

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Julian Erosa: last UFC fights

2026-03-29vs Lerryan Douglas R1 3:33L KO/TKO
2025-05-17vs Melquizael Costa R3 5:00L DEC
2025-04-13vs Darren Elkins R1 4:15W KO/TKO
2024-07-14vs Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49W SUB
2024-03-23vs Ricardo Ramos R1 2:15W SUB

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

JeongYeong Lee: last UFC fights

2025-05-10vs Daniel Santos R3 5:00L DEC
2024-07-21vs Hyder Amil R1 1:05L KO/TKO
2024-02-03vs Blake Bilder R3 5:00W DEC
2023-02-05vs Yizha R3 5:00W DEC

Won 2 (50%)Lost 2 (50%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee?: Our model makes Julian Erosa the slight favourite at 51%, with JeongYeong Lee at 49%.
How will Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee end?: The chance it goes the distance is 47%. If Julian Erosa wins, the likeliest route is decision (44% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Julian Erosa 1.96, JeongYeong Lee 2.04: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.