Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall prediction

What the numbers show

• Hope lands more: 5.3 significant strikes a minute to 3.2.
• Marshall is harder to hit, absorbing 3.5 significant strikes a minute to 5.3.
• Marshall has a 13 cm reach advantage (170 cm vs 183 cm).
• Marshall's rating, built from every UFC result, is 57 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 60% · Fair odds: Dakota Hope 3.34, Francis Marshall 1.43. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Dakota Hope	Tale of the tape	Francis Marshall
11-2-0	Record	10-3-0
USA	Nationality	USA
1	UFC fights	8
29	Age	27
168 cm	Height	175 cm
170 cm	Reach	183 cm
--	Stance	Orthodox
0 / 0 / 0	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 1 / 3
0 / 0 / 1	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 2
5.3	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.2
5.3	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.5
1.2	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.5
0.66	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.34

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall?

Our model makes Francis Marshall the favourite at 70%, with Dakota Hope at 30%.

How will Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall end?

The chance it goes the distance is 60%. If Francis Marshall wins, the likeliest route is decision (62% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Dakota Hope 3.34, Francis Marshall 1.43: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.