Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando prediction

What the numbers show

• Berggren has a 10 cm reach advantage (191 cm vs 180 cm).
• Sezinando has not fought in the UFC since September 2025.
• Sezinando is harder to hit, absorbing 4.8 significant strikes a minute to 5.8.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 43% · Fair odds: Theodor Berggren 1.89, Rodrigo Sezinando 2.13. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Theodor Berggren	Tale of the tape	Rodrigo Sezinando
8-4-0	Record	9-2-0
Sweden	Nationality	Brazil
1	UFC fights	1
26	Age	28
183 cm	Height	175 cm
191 cm	Reach	180 cm
--	Stance	Orthodox
0 / 0 / 0	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
1 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 0
3.6	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.3
5.8	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	4.8
1.0	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.9
0.22	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.24

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando?

Our model makes Theodor Berggren the slight favourite at 53%, with Rodrigo Sezinando at 47%.

How will Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando end?

The chance it goes the distance is 43%. If Theodor Berggren wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (43% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Theodor Berggren 1.89, Rodrigo Sezinando 2.13: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.