Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Lightweight · 5 rounds · main event
Tom Nolan is the favourite at 64%. The likeliest single outcome is Tom Nolan by KO/TKO (31%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 32%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Moicano is far more experienced in the UFC: 20 fights to 7.
- Nolan is the younger fighter: 26 against 37 on fight night.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Renato Moicano: 36% to win
- KO/TKO13% overall
- Submission13% overall
- Decision10% overall
Tom Nolan: 64% to win
- KO/TKO31% overall
- Submission11% overall
- Decision22% overall
Goes the distance: 32% · Fair odds: Renato Moicano 2.79, Tom Nolan 1.56. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Renato Moicano | Tale of the tape |  Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| 21-7-1 | Record | 11-1-0 |
| Brazil | Nationality | Australia |
| 20 | UFC fights | 7 |
| 37 | Age | 26 |
| 180 cm | Height | 191 cm |
| 183 cm | Reach | 185 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 2 / 7 / 4 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 2 / 1 / 3 |
| 3 / 2 / 2 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 4.1 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.6 |
| 3.6 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.7 |
| 1.7 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 1.2 |
| 0.17 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.49 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Renato Moicano: last UFC fights
- 2026-04-05vs Chris Duncan
R2 3:14W SUB - 2025-06-29vs Beneil Dariush
R3 5:00L DEC - 2025-01-19vs Islam Makhachev
R1 4:05L SUB - 2024-09-28vs Benoît Saint Denis
R2 5:00W KO/TKO - 2024-04-13vs Jalin Turner R2 4:11W KO/TKO
Tom Nolan: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-07vs Farés Ziam R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-09-28vs Charlie Campbell R1 4:08W SUB
- 2025-02-09vs Viacheslav Borshchev R3 5:00W DEC
- 2024-08-17vs Alex Reyes R3 5:00W DEC
- 2024-05-18vs Victor Martinez R1 3:50W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan?
- Our model makes Tom Nolan the favourite at 64%, with Renato Moicano at 36%.
- How will Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 32%. If Tom Nolan wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (48% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Renato Moicano 2.79, Tom Nolan 1.56: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.