Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Welterweight
Jacobe Smith is the favourite at 72%. The likeliest single outcome is Jacobe Smith by decision (29%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 41%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Smith wrestles more, averaging 5.4 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.8.
- Brown is far more experienced in the UFC: 22 fights to 5.
- Brown has a 15 cm reach advantage (198 cm vs 183 cm).
- Smith lands more: 5.6 significant strikes a minute to 4.3.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Randy Brown: 28% to win
- KO/TKO10% overall
- Submission4% overall
- Decision13% overall
Jacobe Smith: 72% to win
- KO/TKO26% overall
- Submission17% overall
- Decision29% overall
Goes the distance: 41% · Fair odds: Randy Brown 3.63, Jacobe Smith 1.38. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Randy Brown | Tale of the tape |  Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| 20-8-0 | Record | 13-0-0 |
| Jamaica | Nationality | USA |
| 22 | UFC fights | 5 |
| 36 | Age | 30 |
| 191 cm | Height | 178 cm |
| 198 cm | Reach | 183 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 4 / 3 / 7 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 4 / 1 / 0 |
| 3 / 2 / 3 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 4.3 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 5.6 |
| 3.4 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.1 |
| 0.8 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 5.4 |
| 0.38 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.52 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Randy Brown: last UFC fights
- 2026-04-11vs Kevin Holland R3 5:00L DEC
- 2025-11-09vs Gabriel Bonfim
R2 1:40L KO/TKO - 2025-04-27vs Nicolas Dalby
R2 1:39W KO/TKO - 2024-12-08vs Bryan Battle R3 5:00L DEC
- 2024-06-02vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos R3 5:00W DEC
Jacobe Smith: last UFC fights
- 2026-10-03vs Bruce Whitehead R1 1:32W KO/TKO
- 2026-02-22vs Josiah Harrell R1 3:01W KO/TKO
- 2025-06-28vs Niko Price R2 4:03W SUB
- 2025-01-11vs Preston Parsons R1 1:13W KO/TKO
- 2024-10-02vs Christien Savoie R2 2:55W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith?
- Our model makes Jacobe Smith the favourite at 72%, with Randy Brown at 28%.
- How will Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 41%. If Jacobe Smith wins, the likeliest route is decision (40% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Randy Brown 3.63, Jacobe Smith 1.38: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
- Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
- Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden
- Yana Santos vs Luana Santos
- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov
- Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall
- Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev
- Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando
- Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee
- Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein
- Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar
- Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová
- Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.