Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar prediction

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · W Strawweight

Venezuela · 12-2-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC67%

PickRodriguezDEC

Brazil · 8-1-1UFC wins: 0 KO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC33%

Piera Rodriguez is the favourite at 67%. The likeliest single outcome is Piera Rodriguez by decision (57%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 77%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Rodriguez has a 13 cm reach advantage (161 cm vs 149 cm).

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Piera Rodriguez: 67% to win

KO/TKO6% overall
Submission4% overall
Decision57% overall

Talita Alencar: 33% to win

KO/TKO3% overall
Submission10% overall
Decision20% overall

Goes the distance: 77% · Fair odds: Piera Rodriguez 1.50, Talita Alencar 3.02. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Piera Rodriguez	Tale of the tape	Talita Alencar
12-2-0	Record	8-1-1
Venezuela	Nationality	Brazil
8	UFC fights	6
33	Age	36
160 cm	Height	155 cm
161 cm	Reach	149 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
0 / 0 / 6	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 1 / 3
0 / 1 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 1
4.0	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.2
3.2	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.7
3.7	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.8
0.16	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.04

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Piera Rodriguez: last UFC fights

2026-03-14vs Sam Hughes R3 5:00W DEC
2025-08-02vs Ketlen Souza R3 5:00W DEC
2024-12-15vs Josefine Knutsson R3 5:00W DEC
2024-05-18vs Ariane Carnelossi R2 3:16L
2023-04-15vs Gillian Robertson R2 4:21L SUB

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

Talita Alencar: last UFC fights

2026-04-25vs Julia Polastri R3 5:00W DEC
2025-11-01vs Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36W SUB
2025-04-05vs Vanessa Demopoulos R3 5:00W DEC
2024-08-10vs Stephanie Luciano R3 5:00L DEC
2023-12-10vs Rayanne dos Santos R3 5:00W DEC

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar?: Our model makes Piera Rodriguez the favourite at 67%, with Talita Alencar at 33%.
How will Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar end?: The chance it goes the distance is 77%. If Piera Rodriguez wins, the likeliest route is decision (85% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Piera Rodriguez 1.50, Talita Alencar 3.02: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.