Yana Santos vs Luana Santos prediction

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · W Bantamweight

Russia · 17-8-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 0 SUB, 7 DEC27%

PickSantosDEC

Brazil · 11-2-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC73%

Luana Santos is the favourite at 73%. The likeliest single outcome is Luana Santos by decision (39%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 61%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Santos is the younger fighter: 26 against 36 on fight night.
Santos lands more: 4.3 significant strikes a minute to 2.7.
Santos's rating, built from every UFC result, is 64 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
Santos wrestles more, averaging 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.8.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Yana Santos: 27% to win

KO/TKO4% overall
Submission1% overall
Decision22% overall

Luana Santos: 73% to win

KO/TKO19% overall
Submission14% overall
Decision39% overall

Goes the distance: 61% · Fair odds: Yana Santos 3.64, Luana Santos 1.38. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Yana Santos	Tale of the tape	Luana Santos
17-8-0	Record	11-2-0
Russia	Nationality	Brazil
12	UFC fights	7
36	Age	26
168 cm	Height	168 cm
173 cm	Reach	170 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
0 / 0 / 7	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 2 / 3
3 / 0 / 2	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 1
4.3	Sig. strikes landed per minute	2.7
3.2	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.6
0.8	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.0
0.12	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.05

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Yana Santos: last UFC fights

2025-10-04vs Macy Chiasson R3 5:00W DEC
2025-05-03vs Miesha Tate R3 5:00W DEC
2024-08-10vs Chelsea Chandler R3 5:00W DEC
2023-07-01vs Karol Rosa R3 5:00L DEC
2023-03-25vs Holly Holm R3 5:00L DEC

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

Luana Santos: last UFC fights

2026-06-20vs Karol Rosa R3 5:00W DEC
2025-12-14vs Melissa Croden R3 5:00W DEC
2025-05-17vs Tainara Lisboa R2 4:59W SUB
2024-08-18vs Casey O'Neill R3 5:00L DEC
2024-07-13vs Mariya Agapova R1 3:27W SUB

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Yana Santos vs Luana Santos?: Our model makes Luana Santos the favourite at 73%, with Yana Santos at 27%.
How will Yana Santos vs Luana Santos end?: The chance it goes the distance is 61%. If Luana Santos wins, the likeliest route is decision (54% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Yana Santos 3.64, Luana Santos 1.38: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.