Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · W Flyweight
Lucia Szabová is the slight favourite at 59%. The likeliest single outcome is Lucia Szabová by decision (30%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 53%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Szabová is the younger fighter: 28 against 35 on fight night.
- Szabová lands more: 3.6 significant strikes a minute to 2.4.
- Lisboa has not fought in the UFC since October 2025.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Tainara Lisboa: 41% to win
- KO/TKO6% overall
- Submission12% overall
- Decision23% overall
Lucia Szabová: 59% to win
- KO/TKO14% overall
- Submission15% overall
- Decision30% overall
Goes the distance: 53% · Fair odds: Tainara Lisboa 2.45, Lucia Szabová 1.69. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Tainara Lisboa | Tale of the tape |  Lucia Szabová |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4-0 | Record | 12-0-0 |
| Brazil | Nationality | Slovakia |
| 4 | UFC fights | 0 |
| 35 | Age | 28 |
| 170 cm | Height | 170 cm |
| 170 cm | Reach | – |
| Orthodox | Stance | -- |
| 0 / 1 / 1 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 1 / 1 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 2.4 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 3.6 |
| 3.0 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.6 |
| 1.6 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 1.5 |
| 0.07 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.31 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Tainara Lisboa: last UFC fights
- 2025-10-18vs Melissa Croden
R3 4:32L KO/TKO - 2025-05-17vs Luana Santos R2 4:59L SUB
- 2023-10-14vs Ravena Oliveira R3 5:00W DEC
- 2023-05-13vs Jessica-Rose Clark R3 4:20W SUB
Lucia Szabová: last UFC fights
UFC debut.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová?
- Our model makes Lucia Szabová the slight favourite at 59%, with Tainara Lisboa at 41%.
- How will Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 53%. If Lucia Szabová wins, the likeliest route is decision (50% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Tainara Lisboa 2.45, Lucia Szabová 1.69: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.