Jiří Procházka vs Navajo Stirling prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds · main event
Navajo Stirling is the favourite at 75%. The likeliest single outcome is Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO (57%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 21%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Stirling is harder to hit, absorbing 2.7 significant strikes a minute to 5.4.
- Stirling is the younger fighter: 29 against 34 on fight night.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Jiří Procházka: 25% to win
- KO/TKO18% overall
- Submission3% overall
- Decision5% overall
Navajo Stirling: 75% to win
- KO/TKO57% overall
- Submission2% overall
- Decision16% overall
Goes the distance: 21% · Fair odds: Jiří Procházka 3.97, Navajo Stirling 1.34. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Jiří Procházka | Tale of the tape |  Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| 32-6-1 | Record | 11-0-0 |
| Czechia | Nationality | New Zealand |
| 9 | UFC fights | 7 |
| 34 | Age | 29 |
| 191 cm | Height | 193 cm |
| 203 cm | Reach | 201 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 5 / 1 / 0 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 4 / 0 / 3 |
| 3 / 0 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 5.3 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 6.0 |
| 5.4 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 2.7 |
| 0.6 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.9 |
| 0.74 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.57 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Jiří Procházka: last UFC fights
- 2026-04-12vs Carlos Ulberg R1 3:45L KO/TKO
- 2025-10-05vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
R3 3:04W KO/TKO - 2025-01-19vs Jamahal Hill R3 3:01W KO/TKO
- 2024-06-30vs Alex Pereira
R2 0:13L KO/TKO - 2024-04-14vs Aleksandar Rakic
R2 3:17W KO/TKO
Navajo Stirling: last UFC fights
- 2026-08-01vs Jan Blachowicz
R1 2:56W KO/TKO - 2026-06-21vs Ion Cutelaba
R2 3:23W KO/TKO - 2026-03-28vs Bruno Lopes R2 4:05W KO/TKO
- 2025-09-27vs Rodolfo Bellato R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-05-11vs Ivan Erslan
R3 5:00W DEC
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Jiří Procházka vs Navajo Stirling?
- Our model makes Navajo Stirling the favourite at 75%, with Jiří Procházka at 25%.
- How will Jiří Procházka vs Navajo Stirling end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 21%. If Navajo Stirling wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (76% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Jiří Procházka 3.97, Navajo Stirling 1.34: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.