Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Flyweight
Alessandro Costa is the slight favourite at 57%. The likeliest single outcome is Alessandro Costa by decision (30%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Costa lands more: 3.7 significant strikes a minute to 2.6.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Amir Albazi: 43% to win
- KO/TKO14% overall
- Submission10% overall
- Decision20% overall
Alessandro Costa: 57% to win
- KO/TKO21% overall
- Submission6% overall
- Decision30% overall
Goes the distance: 50% · Fair odds: Amir Albazi 2.32, Alessandro Costa 1.76. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Amir Albazi | Tale of the tape |  Alessandro Costa |
|---|---|---|
| 17-3-0 | Record | 17-5-0 |
| Iraq | Nationality | Brazil |
| 7 | UFC fights | 9 |
| 33 | Age | 30 |
| 165 cm | Height | 163 cm |
| 173 cm | Reach | 170 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1 / 2 / 2 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 4 / 1 / 1 |
| 0 / 0 / 2 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 2 / 0 / 1 |
| 2.6 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 3.7 |
| 3.8 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.7 |
| 1.2 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.8 |
| 0.30 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.79 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Amir Albazi: last UFC fights
- 2026-02-08vs Kyoji Horiguchi
R3 5:00L DEC - 2024-11-03vs Brandon Moreno
R5 5:00L DEC - 2023-06-04vs Kai Kara-France
R5 5:00W DEC - 2022-12-18vs Alessandro Costa R3 2:13W KO/TKO
- 2022-08-20vs Francisco Figueiredo R1 4:34W SUB
Alessandro Costa: last UFC fights
- 2026-07-11vs Cody Durden
R2 2:19W SUB - 2026-06-06vs Matt Schnell R1 2:28W KO/TKO
- 2026-04-04vs Stewart Nicoll
R2 4:56W KO/TKO - 2025-09-13vs Alden Coria R3 0:47L KO/TKO
- 2024-05-04vs Kevin Borjas
R2 1:35W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa?
- Our model makes Alessandro Costa the slight favourite at 57%, with Amir Albazi at 43%.
- How will Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 50%. If Alessandro Costa wins, the likeliest route is decision (53% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Amir Albazi 2.32, Alessandro Costa 1.76: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.