Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Featherweight
Aljamain Sterling is the slight favourite at 56%. The likeliest single outcome is Aljamain Sterling by decision (36%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 56%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Sterling is far more experienced in the UFC: 23 fights to 6.
- Vallejos is the younger fighter: 24 against 37 on fight night.
- Sterling's rating, built from every UFC result, is 88 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
- Sterling is harder to hit, absorbing 2.2 significant strikes a minute to 4.2.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Aljamain Sterling: 56% to win
- KO/TKO10% overall
- Submission9% overall
- Decision36% overall
Kevin Vallejos: 44% to win
- KO/TKO24% overall
- Submission1% overall
- Decision19% overall
Goes the distance: 56% · Fair odds: Aljamain Sterling 1.80, Kevin Vallejos 2.25. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Aljamain Sterling | Tale of the tape |  Kevin Vallejos |
|---|---|---|
| 26-5-0 | Record | 18-1-0 |
| USA | Nationality | Argentina |
| 23 | UFC fights | 6 |
| 37 | Age | 24 |
| 170 cm | Height | 170 cm |
| 180 cm | Reach | 173 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 2 / 4 / 11 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 4 / 0 / 1 |
| 2 / 0 / 3 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| 4.2 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 5.5 |
| 2.2 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 4.2 |
| 2.5 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.9 |
| 0.01 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 1.32 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Aljamain Sterling: last UFC fights
- 2026-04-26vs Youssef Zalal
R5 5:00W DEC - 2025-08-23vs Brian Ortega R5 5:00W DEC
- 2024-12-08vs Movsar Evloev
R3 5:00L DEC - 2024-04-14vs Calvin Kattar R3 5:00W DEC
- 2023-08-20vs Sean O'Malley R2 0:51L KO/TKO
Kevin Vallejos: last UFC fights
- 2026-03-15vs Josh Emmett R1 3:33W KO/TKO
- 2025-12-14vs Giga Chikadze
R2 1:29W KO/TKO - 2025-08-03vs Danny Silva R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-03-15vs SeungWoo Choi
R1 3:09W KO/TKO - 2024-09-25vs Cam Teague R1 2:23W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos?
- Our model makes Aljamain Sterling the slight favourite at 56%, with Kevin Vallejos at 44%.
- How will Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 56%. If Aljamain Sterling wins, the likeliest route is decision (65% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Aljamain Sterling 1.80, Kevin Vallejos 2.25: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.