Brian Ortega vs Dan Hooker prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Lightweight
Dan Hooker is the favourite at 60%. The likeliest single outcome is Dan Hooker by KO/TKO (28%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 39%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Hooker has a 15 cm reach advantage (175 cm vs 191 cm).
- Hooker is far more experienced in the UFC: 25 fights to 14.
- Hooker is harder to hit, absorbing 4.8 significant strikes a minute to 6.2.
- Ortega's rating, built from every UFC result, is 52 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Brian Ortega: 40% to win
- KO/TKO15% overall
- Submission13% overall
- Decision12% overall
Dan Hooker: 60% to win
- KO/TKO28% overall
- Submission4% overall
- Decision28% overall
Goes the distance: 39% · Fair odds: Brian Ortega 2.51, Dan Hooker 1.66. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Brian Ortega | Tale of the tape |  Dan Hooker |
|---|---|---|
| 16-5-0 | Record | 24-15-0 |
| USA | Nationality | New Zealand |
| 14 | UFC fights | 25 |
| 35 | Age | 36 |
| 173 cm | Height | 183 cm |
| 175 cm | Reach | 191 cm |
| Switch | Stance | Switch |
| 3 / 4 / 1 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 7 / 2 / 5 |
| 2 / 0 / 3 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 5 / 2 / 4 |
| 3.8 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.7 |
| 6.2 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 4.8 |
| 1.0 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.6 |
| 0.38 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.54 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Brian Ortega: last UFC fights
- 2025-08-23vs Aljamain Sterling R5 5:00L DEC
- 2024-09-15vs Diego Lopes
R3 5:00L DEC - 2024-02-25vs Yair Rodriguez
R3 0:58W SUB - 2022-07-16vs Yair Rodriguez R1 4:11L KO/TKO
- 2021-09-26vs Alexander Volkanovski
R5 5:00L DEC
Dan Hooker: last UFC fights
- 2026-09-05vs Salahdine Parnasse
R1 2:35L KO/TKO - 2026-02-01vs Benoît Saint Denis R2 4:45L KO/TKO
- 2025-11-22vs Arman Tsarukyan
R2 3:34L SUB - 2024-08-18vs Mateusz Gamrot
R3 5:00W DEC - 2023-07-09vs Jalin Turner R3 5:00W DEC
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Brian Ortega vs Dan Hooker?
- Our model makes Dan Hooker the favourite at 60%, with Brian Ortega at 40%.
- How will Brian Ortega vs Dan Hooker end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 39%. If Dan Hooker wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (47% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Brian Ortega 2.51, Dan Hooker 1.66: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.