Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Heavyweight
Tallison Teixeira is the favourite at 73%. The likeliest single outcome is Tallison Teixeira by KO/TKO (51%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 25%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Teixeira is the younger fighter: 26 against 36 on fight night.
- Teixeira has a 11 cm reach advantage (199 cm vs 211 cm).
- Teixeira lands more: 4.3 significant strikes a minute to 3.0.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Shamil Gaziev: 27% to win
- KO/TKO18% overall
- Submission3% overall
- Decision6% overall
Tallison Teixeira: 73% to win
- KO/TKO51% overall
- Submission3% overall
- Decision19% overall
Goes the distance: 25% · Fair odds: Shamil Gaziev 3.71, Tallison Teixeira 1.37. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Shamil Gaziev | Tale of the tape |  Tallison Teixeira |
|---|---|---|
| 15-3-0 | Record | 9-2-0 |
| Bahrain | Nationality | Brazil |
| 8 | UFC fights | 5 |
| 36 | Age | 26 |
| 193 cm | Height | 201 cm |
| 199 cm | Reach | 211 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 3 / 1 / 1 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 2 / 0 / 1 |
| 3 / 0 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 2 / 0 / 0 |
| 3.0 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.3 |
| 4.6 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.9 |
| 1.1 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.0 |
| 0.68 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 1.03 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Shamil Gaziev: last UFC fights
- 2026-08-22vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
R1 1:20W KO/TKO - 2026-05-02vs Brando Peričić
R2 3:44L KO/TKO - 2025-11-22vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
R1 1:22L KO/TKO - 2025-02-01vs Thomas Petersen
R1 3:12W KO/TKO - 2024-08-03vs Don'Tale Mayes R3 5:00W DEC
Tallison Teixeira: last UFC fights
- 2026-05-30vs Sergei Pavlovich
R1 0:39L KO/TKO - 2026-02-01vs Tai Tuivasa R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-07-13vs Derrick Lewis R1 0:35L KO/TKO
- 2025-02-09vs Justin Tafa R1 0:35W KO/TKO
- 2024-09-18vs Arthur Lopes R1 1:57W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira?
- Our model makes Tallison Teixeira the favourite at 73%, with Shamil Gaziev at 27%.
- How will Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 25%. If Tallison Teixeira wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (70% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Shamil Gaziev 3.71, Tallison Teixeira 1.37: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.