Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Bantamweight
Santiago Luna is the favourite at 71%. The likeliest single outcome is Santiago Luna by decision (40%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 58%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Luna has a 15 cm reach advantage (173 cm vs 188 cm).
- Luna is the younger fighter: 22 against 30 on fight night.
- Luna lands more: 4.4 significant strikes a minute to 3.2.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Aleksandre Topuria: 29% to win
- KO/TKO6% overall
- Submission6% overall
- Decision17% overall
Santiago Luna: 71% to win
- KO/TKO23% overall
- Submission8% overall
- Decision40% overall
Goes the distance: 58% · Fair odds: Aleksandre Topuria 3.41, Santiago Luna 1.42. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Aleksandre Topuria | Tale of the tape |  Santiago Luna |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1-0 | Record | 8-1-0 |
| Georgia | Nationality | Mexico |
| 2 | UFC fights | 3 |
| 30 | Age | 22 |
| 170 cm | Height | 175 cm |
| 173 cm | Reach | 188 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 0 / 0 / 2 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 1 |
| 0 / 0 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 1 / 0 |
| 3.2 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.4 |
| 2.9 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.0 |
| 1.5 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.0 |
| 0.10 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.73 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Aleksandre Topuria: last UFC fights
- 2025-11-22vs Bekzat Almakhan
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-02-09vs Colby Thicknesse
R3 5:00W DEC
Santiago Luna: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-07vs Bryce Mitchell
R3 4:52L SUB - 2026-03-01vs Angel Pacheco R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-09-13vs Quang Le
R1 2:48W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna?
- Our model makes Santiago Luna the favourite at 71%, with Aleksandre Topuria at 29%.
- How will Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 58%. If Santiago Luna wins, the likeliest route is decision (57% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Aleksandre Topuria 3.41, Santiago Luna 1.42: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.