Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Flyweight
Asu Almabayev is the slight favourite at 58%. The likeliest single outcome is Asu Almabayev by decision (25%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 48%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Almabayev wrestles more, averaging 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes to 1.7.
- Horiguchi lands more: 3.6 significant strikes a minute to 2.4.
- Almabayev has a 5 cm reach advantage (160 cm vs 165 cm).
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Kyoji Horiguchi: 42% to win
- KO/TKO14% overall
- Submission5% overall
- Decision23% overall
Asu Almabayev: 58% to win
- KO/TKO8% overall
- Submission25% overall
- Decision25% overall
Goes the distance: 48% · Fair odds: Kyoji Horiguchi 2.40, Asu Almabayev 1.72. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Kyoji Horiguchi | Tale of the tape |  Asu Almabayev |
|---|---|---|
| 36-6-0 | Record | 24-3-0 |
| Japan | Nationality | Kazakhstan |
| 11 | UFC fights | 8 |
| 36 | Age | 32 |
| 163 cm | Height | 163 cm |
| 160 cm | Reach | 165 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 2 / 1 / 6 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 3 / 4 |
| 1 / 1 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 3.6 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 2.4 |
| 2.2 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 2.1 |
| 1.7 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 4.3 |
| 0.56 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.17 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Kyoji Horiguchi: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-21vs Manel Kape
R3 2:42L KO/TKO - 2026-02-08vs Amir Albazi
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-11-22vs Tagir Ulanbekov
R3 2:18W SUB - 2016-11-19vs Ali Bagautinov R3 5:00W DEC
- 2016-05-08vs Neil Seery R3 5:00W DEC
Asu Almabayev: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-27vs Charles Johnson
R3 3:33W SUB - 2025-11-22vs Alex Perez R3 0:22W SUB
- 2025-07-26vs Jose Ochoa
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-03-02vs Manel Kape R3 2:16L KO/TKO
- 2024-10-19vs Matheus Nicolau R3 5:00W DEC
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev?
- Our model makes Asu Almabayev the slight favourite at 58%, with Kyoji Horiguchi at 42%.
- How will Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 48%. If Asu Almabayev wins, the likeliest route is decision (43% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Kyoji Horiguchi 2.40, Asu Almabayev 1.72: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.