Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Welterweight
Jake Matthews is the favourite at 62%. The likeliest single outcome is Jake Matthews by decision (29%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 45%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Matthews is far more experienced in the UFC: 24 fights to 1.
- Matthews's rating, built from every UFC result, is 66 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Jake Matthews: 62% to win
- KO/TKO16% overall
- Submission17% overall
- Decision29% overall
Tahir Abdullayev: 38% to win
- KO/TKO11% overall
- Submission10% overall
- Decision16% overall
Goes the distance: 45% · Fair odds: Jake Matthews 1.61, Tahir Abdullayev 2.63. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Jake Matthews | Tale of the tape |  Tahir Abdullayev |
|---|---|---|
| 23-8-0 | Record | 20-3-0 |
| Australia | Nationality | Azerbaijan |
| 24 | UFC fights | 1 |
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 180 cm | Height | 173 cm |
| 185 cm | Reach | 185 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | -- |
| 2 / 6 / 8 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 1 / 4 / 3 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 3.4 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 3.1 |
| 2.6 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.0 |
| 1.4 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 1.8 |
| 0.33 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.16 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Jake Matthews: last UFC fights
- 2026-05-30vs Carlston Harris
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-09-28vs Neil Magny
R3 3:08L SUB - 2025-07-12vs Chidi Njokuani R1 1:09W SUB
- 2025-02-09vs Francisco Prado
R3 5:00W DEC - 2024-06-02vs Phil Rowe R3 5:00W DEC
Tahir Abdullayev: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-27vs Jefferson Nascimento
R3 4:28W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev?
- Our model makes Jake Matthews the favourite at 62%, with Tahir Abdullayev at 38%.
- How will Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 45%. If Jake Matthews wins, the likeliest route is decision (47% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Jake Matthews 1.61, Tahir Abdullayev 2.63: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.