Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov prediction
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov is the favourite at 77%. The likeliest single outcome is Ikram Aliskerov by decision (43%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 52%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Aliskerov wrestles more, averaging 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.8.
- Cannonier is far more experienced in the UFC: 21 fights to 7.
- Aliskerov is the younger fighter: 33 against 42 on fight night.
- Aliskerov's rating, built from every UFC result, is 61 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Jared Cannonier: 23% to win
- KO/TKO14% overall
- Submission1% overall
- Decision8% overall
Ikram Aliskerov: 77% to win
- KO/TKO28% overall
- Submission5% overall
- Decision43% overall
Goes the distance: 52% · Fair odds: Jared Cannonier 4.29, Ikram Aliskerov 1.30. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Jared Cannonier | Tale of the tape |  Ikram Aliskerov |
|---|---|---|
| 18-10-0 | Record | 18-2-0 |
| USA | Nationality | Russia |
| 21 | UFC fights | 7 |
| 42 | Age | 33 |
| 180 cm | Height | 183 cm |
| 197 cm | Reach | 193 cm |
| Switch | Stance | Southpaw |
| 7 / 0 / 4 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 3 / 1 / 2 |
| 3 / 0 / 7 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 4.2 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 5.1 |
| 4.3 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.9 |
| 0.8 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 3.2 |
| 0.36 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.85 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Jared Cannonier: last UFC fights
- 2026-07-19vs Christian Leroy Duncan
R3 5:00L DEC - 2025-08-17vs Michael Page R3 5:00L DEC
- 2025-02-16vs Gregory Rodrigues
R4 0:21W KO/TKO - 2024-08-25vs Caio Borralho R5 5:00L DEC
- 2024-06-09vs Nassourdine Imavov
R4 1:34L KO/TKO
Ikram Aliskerov: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-27vs Brunno Ferreira R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-10-25vs JunYong Park
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-04-27vs Andre Muniz R1 4:54W KO/TKO
- 2024-06-22vs Robert Whittaker
R1 1:49L KO/TKO - 2023-10-21vs Warlley Alves R1 2:07W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov?
- Our model makes Ikram Aliskerov the favourite at 77%, with Jared Cannonier at 23%.
- How will Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 52%. If Ikram Aliskerov wins, the likeliest route is decision (57% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Jared Cannonier 4.29, Ikram Aliskerov 1.30: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.