Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento prediction

What the numbers show

• Sadykhov's rating, built from every UFC result, is 96 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
• Nascimento is harder to hit, absorbing 3.1 significant strikes a minute to 5.1.
• Sadykhov lands more: 4.5 significant strikes a minute to 3.0.
• Sadykhov is far more experienced in the UFC: 8 fights to 1.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 35% · Fair odds: Nazim Sadykhov 1.84, Jefferson Nascimento 2.19. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Nazim Sadykhov	Tale of the tape	Jefferson Nascimento
11-3-1	Record	13-1-0
Azerbaijan	Nationality	Brazil
8	UFC fights	1
32	Age	27
178 cm	Height	173 cm
175 cm	Reach	178 cm
Southpaw	Stance	--
4 / 1 / 0	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
2 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 0
4.5	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.0
5.1	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.1
1.2	Takedowns per 15 minutes	0.8
0.59	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.16

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento?

Our model makes Nazim Sadykhov the slight favourite at 54%, with Jefferson Nascimento at 46%.

How will Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento end?

The chance it goes the distance is 35%. If Nazim Sadykhov wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (54% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Nazim Sadykhov 1.84, Jefferson Nascimento 2.19: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.