Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz prediction
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Saturday, 14 November 2026 · Bantamweight
Juan Diaz is the slight favourite at 57%. The likeliest single outcome is Adrian Yañez by KO/TKO (26%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 40%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Diaz wrestles more, averaging 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.2.
- Yañez lands more: 5.6 significant strikes a minute to 3.7.
- Yañez is far more experienced in the UFC: 12 fights to 2.
- Diaz is harder to hit, absorbing 3.5 significant strikes a minute to 5.0.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Adrian Yañez: 43% to win
- KO/TKO26% overall
- Submission2% overall
- Decision15% overall
Juan Diaz: 57% to win
- KO/TKO19% overall
- Submission13% overall
- Decision25% overall
Goes the distance: 40% · Fair odds: Adrian Yañez 2.32, Juan Diaz 1.76. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Adrian Yañez | Tale of the tape |  Juan Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| 18-6-1 | Record | 16-1-1 |
| USA | Nationality | Peru |
| 12 | UFC fights | 2 |
| 32 | Age | 28 |
| 170 cm | Height | 173 cm |
| 178 cm | Reach | 177 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 7 / 0 / 1 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 1 / 0 |
| 2 / 0 / 1 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 5.6 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 3.7 |
| 5.0 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.5 |
| 0.2 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 3.7 |
| 1.39 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.58 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Adrian Yañez: last UFC fights
- 2026-07-11vs Cody Garbrandt R1 2:47W KO/TKO
- 2026-03-28vs Ricky Simon R3 5:00NC
- 2024-12-15vs Daniel Marcos R3 5:00L DEC
- 2024-05-18vs Vinicius Salvador R1 2:47W KO/TKO
- 2023-10-14vs Jonathan Martinez R2 2:26L KO/TKO
Juan Diaz: last UFC fights
- 2026-05-17vs Malcolm Wellmaker R2 4:08W SUB
- 2025-10-15vs Kwon Won Il
R2 4:58W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz?
- Our model makes Juan Diaz the slight favourite at 57%, with Adrian Yañez at 43%.
- How will Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 40%. If Juan Diaz wins, the likeliest route is decision (44% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Adrian Yañez 2.32, Juan Diaz 1.76: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
- Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane
- Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison
- Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui
- Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić
- Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan
- Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
- Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
- Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney
- Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita
- Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson
- Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento
- Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.