Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan prediction
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Sunday, 15 November 2026 · Lightweight
Chris Duncan is the favourite at 62%. The likeliest single outcome is Chris Duncan by decision (26%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 36%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Dober is far more experienced in the UFC: 27 fights to 10.
- Duncan wrestles more, averaging 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.7.
- Duncan is the younger fighter: 33 against 38 on fight night.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Drew Dober: 38% to win
- KO/TKO22% overall
- Submission6% overall
- Decision10% overall
Chris Duncan: 62% to win
- KO/TKO15% overall
- Submission21% overall
- Decision26% overall
Goes the distance: 36% · Fair odds: Drew Dober 2.65, Chris Duncan 1.61. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Drew Dober | Tale of the tape |  Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| 29-15-0 | Record | 15-3-0 |
| USA | Nationality | Scotland |
| 27 | UFC fights | 10 |
| 38 | Age | 33 |
| 173 cm | Height | 178 cm |
| 178 cm | Reach | 180 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 11 / 1 / 3 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| 3 / 4 / 4 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 2 / 0 |
| 4.4 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.6 |
| 4.3 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 4.4 |
| 0.7 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.7 |
| 0.65 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.54 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Drew Dober: last UFC fights
- 2026-03-08vs Michael Johnson R2 1:53W KO/TKO
- 2025-10-18vs Kyle Prepolec
R3 1:16W KO/TKO - 2025-03-29vs Manuel Torres
R1 1:45L KO/TKO - 2024-07-14vs Jean Silva
R3 1:28L KO/TKO - 2024-02-04vs Renato Moicano R3 5:00L DEC
Chris Duncan: last UFC fights
- 2026-04-05vs Renato Moicano R2 3:14L SUB
- 2025-12-07vs Terrance McKinney R1 2:30W SUB
- 2025-08-03vs Mateusz Rębecki
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-03-22vs Jordan Vucenic
R2 3:42W SUB - 2024-09-28vs Bolaji Oki
R1 3:34W SUB
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan?
- Our model makes Chris Duncan the favourite at 62%, with Drew Dober at 38%.
- How will Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 36%. If Chris Duncan wins, the likeliest route is decision (42% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Drew Dober 2.65, Chris Duncan 1.61: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
- Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane
- Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison
- Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui
- Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić
- Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan
- Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
- Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney
- Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita
- Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz
- Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson
- Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento
- Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.