Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui prediction
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Sunday, 15 November 2026 · Middleweight
Yousri Belgaroui is the slight favourite at 52%. The likeliest single outcome is Yousri Belgaroui by KO/TKO (30%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Belgaroui lands more: 5.8 significant strikes a minute to 3.5.
- Borralho's rating, built from every UFC result, is 67 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
- Belgaroui has a 10 cm reach advantage (191 cm vs 201 cm).
- Borralho is far more experienced in the UFC: 11 fights to 5.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Caio Borralho: 48% to win
- KO/TKO14% overall
- Submission4% overall
- Decision30% overall
Yousri Belgaroui: 52% to win
- KO/TKO30% overall
- Submission3% overall
- Decision19% overall
Goes the distance: 49% · Fair odds: Caio Borralho 2.07, Yousri Belgaroui 1.93. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Caio Borralho | Tale of the tape |  Yousri Belgaroui |
|---|---|---|
| 18-2-0 | Record | 11-3-0 |
| Brazil | Nationality | Netherlands |
| 11 | UFC fights | 5 |
| 33 | Age | 34 |
| 185 cm | Height | 198 cm |
| 191 cm | Reach | 201 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 2 / 1 / 7 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 4 / 0 / 0 |
| 0 / 0 / 1 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| 3.5 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 5.8 |
| 2.7 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 2.6 |
| 1.3 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.5 |
| 0.38 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.90 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Caio Borralho: last UFC fights
- 2026-03-08vs Reinier de Ridder R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-09-06vs Nassourdine Imavov
R5 5:00L DEC - 2024-08-25vs Jared Cannonier
R5 5:00W DEC - 2024-05-05vs Paul Craig
R2 2:10W KO/TKO - 2023-11-05vs Abus Magomedov
R3 5:00W DEC
Yousri Belgaroui: last UFC fights
- 2026-09-12vs Djorden Santos R1 4:25W KO/TKO
- 2026-03-29vs Mansur Abdul-Malik R3 3:39W KO/TKO
- 2025-10-18vs Azamat Bekoev
R3 0:55W KO/TKO - 2024-09-11vs Taiga Iwasaki R3 2:34W KO/TKO
- 2023-08-30vs Marco Tulio R3 5:00L DEC
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
- Our model makes Yousri Belgaroui the slight favourite at 52%, with Caio Borralho at 48%.
- How will Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 49%. If Yousri Belgaroui wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (58% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Caio Borralho 2.07, Yousri Belgaroui 1.93: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
- Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane
- Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison
- Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić
- Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan
- Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
- Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
- Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney
- Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita
- Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz
- Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson
- Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento
- Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.