Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa prediction

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Saturday, 14 November 2026 · Lightweight

USA · 21-9-0UFC wins: 3 KO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC32%

PickCostaDEC

Brazil · 26-8-0UFC wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC68%

Melquizael Costa is the favourite at 68%. The likeliest single outcome is Melquizael Costa by decision (26%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 45%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Costa is the younger fighter: 30 against 38 on fight night.
Gordon is far more experienced in the UFC: 18 fights to 10.
Costa's rating, built from every UFC result, is 49 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
Gordon lands more: 5.4 significant strikes a minute to 4.2.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Jared Gordon: 32% to win

KO/TKO11% overall
Submission3% overall
Decision19% overall

Melquizael Costa: 68% to win

KO/TKO25% overall
Submission17% overall
Decision26% overall

Goes the distance: 45% · Fair odds: Jared Gordon 3.08, Melquizael Costa 1.48. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Jared Gordon	Tale of the tape	Melquizael Costa
21-9-0	Record	26-8-0
USA	Nationality	Brazil
18	UFC fights	10
38	Age	30
175 cm	Height	178 cm
173 cm	Reach	180 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
3 / 0 / 6	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	2 / 2 / 3
4 / 2 / 2	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 1 / 1
5.4	Sig. strikes landed per minute	4.2
4.1	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.2
1.9	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.5
0.17	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.28

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Jared Gordon: last UFC fights

2026-05-09vs Jim Miller R1 3:29L SUB
2025-09-13vs Rafa Garcia R3 2:27L KO/TKO
2025-05-17vs Thiago Moisés R1 3:37W KO/TKO
2024-06-22vs Nasrat Haqparast R3 5:00L DEC
2023-11-11vs Mark O. Madsen R1 4:42W KO/TKO

Won 2 (40%)Lost 3 (60%)

Melquizael Costa: last UFC fights

2026-05-17vs Arnold Allen R5 5:00L DEC
2026-02-22vs Dan Ige R1 4:56W KO/TKO
2025-12-14vs Morgan Charrière R1 1:14W KO/TKO
2025-05-17vs Julian Erosa R3 5:00W DEC
2025-03-29vs Christian Rodriguez R3 5:00W DEC

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa?: Our model makes Melquizael Costa the favourite at 68%, with Jared Gordon at 32%.
How will Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa end?: The chance it goes the distance is 45%. If Melquizael Costa wins, the likeliest route is decision (38% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Jared Gordon 3.08, Melquizael Costa 1.48: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.