Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić prediction

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Sunday, 15 November 2026 · Welterweight

USA · 29-15-0UFC wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB, 6 DEC52%

PickHollandSUB

Serbia · 14-3-0UFC wins: 9 KO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC48%

Kevin Holland is the slight favourite at 52%. The likeliest single outcome is Uroš Medić by KO/TKO (34%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 28%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Holland has a 25 cm reach advantage (206 cm vs 180 cm).
Holland is far more experienced in the UFC: 30 fights to 12.
Medić lands more: 5.2 significant strikes a minute to 4.2.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Kevin Holland: 52% to win

KO/TKO17% overall
Submission20% overall
Decision15% overall

Uroš Medić: 48% to win

KO/TKO34% overall
Submission1% overall
Decision13% overall

Goes the distance: 28% · Fair odds: Kevin Holland 1.93, Uroš Medić 2.08. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Kevin Holland	Tale of the tape	Uroš Medić
29-15-0	Record	14-3-0
USA	Nationality	Serbia
30	UFC fights	12
34	Age	33
191 cm	Height	185 cm
206 cm	Reach	180 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
5 / 6 / 6	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	9 / 0 / 0
2 / 3 / 7	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 2 / 0
4.2	Sig. strikes landed per minute	5.2
3.2	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.5
0.8	Takedowns per 15 minutes	0.6
0.32	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	2.86

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Kevin Holland: last UFC fights

2026-04-11vs Randy Brown R3 5:00W DEC
2025-10-18vs Mike Malott R3 5:00L DEC
2025-07-20vs Daniel Rodriguez R3 5:00L DEC
2025-06-08vs Vicente Luque R2 1:03W SUB
2025-03-22vs Gunnar Nelson R3 5:00W DEC

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

Uroš Medić: last UFC fights

2026-08-01vs Daniel Rodriguez R1 0:30W KO/TKO
2026-02-22vs Geoff Neal R1 1:19W KO/TKO
2025-11-09vs Muslim Salikhov R1 1:03W KO/TKO
2025-08-09vs Gilbert Urbina R1 1:03W KO/TKO
2025-01-12vs Punahele Soriano R1 0:31L KO/TKO

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić?: Our model makes Kevin Holland the slight favourite at 52%, with Uroš Medić at 48%.
How will Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić end?: The chance it goes the distance is 28%. If Kevin Holland wins, the likeliest route is submission (39% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Kevin Holland 1.93, Uroš Medić 2.08: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.