Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke prediction

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Sunday, 15 November 2026 · Welterweight

USA · 17-9-1UFC wins: 6 KO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC45%

PickRadtkeDEC

USA · 12-5-0UFC wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC55%

Charles Radtke is the slight favourite at 55%. The likeliest single outcome is Charles Radtke by decision (32%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 50%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Thompson is far more experienced in the UFC: 22 fights to 7.
Radtke wrestles more, averaging 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.3.
Radtke is the younger fighter: 36 against 43 on fight night.
Thompson has not fought in the UFC since July 2025.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Stephen Thompson: 45% to win

KO/TKO25% overall
Submission1% overall
Decision19% overall

Charles Radtke: 55% to win

KO/TKO16% overall
Submission8% overall
Decision32% overall

Goes the distance: 50% · Fair odds: Stephen Thompson 2.24, Charles Radtke 1.81. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Stephen Thompson	Tale of the tape	Charles Radtke
17-9-1	Record	12-5-0
USA	Nationality	USA
22	UFC fights	7
43	Age	36
183 cm	Height	175 cm
191 cm	Reach	183 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
6 / 0 / 6	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	2 / 1 / 2
2 / 1 / 6	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	2 / 0 / 0
3.9	Sig. strikes landed per minute	2.7
2.8	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.7
0.3	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.9
0.46	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.46

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Stephen Thompson: last UFC fights

2025-07-13vs Gabriel Bonfim R3 5:00L DEC
2024-10-06vs Joaquin Buckley R3 2:17L KO/TKO
2023-12-17vs Shavkat Rakhmonov R2 4:56L SUB
2022-12-04vs Kevin Holland R4 5:00W KO/TKO
2021-12-19vs Belal Muhammad R3 5:00L DEC

Won 1 (20%)Lost 4 (80%)

Charles Radtke: last UFC fights

2026-04-11vs Francisco Prado R3 5:00W DEC
2025-11-01vs Daniel Frunza R3 4:29W SUB
2025-05-11vs Mike Malott R2 0:26L KO/TKO
2024-11-09vs Matthew Semelsberger R1 0:51W KO/TKO
2024-06-08vs Carlos Prates R1 4:47L KO/TKO

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?: Our model makes Charles Radtke the slight favourite at 55%, with Stephen Thompson at 45%.
How will Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke end?: The chance it goes the distance is 50%. If Charles Radtke wins, the likeliest route is decision (58% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Stephen Thompson 2.24, Charles Radtke 1.81: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.