Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson prediction

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Saturday, 14 November 2026 · Middleweight

Brazil · 7-3-0UFC wins: 2 KO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC28%

PickJohnsonDEC

USA · 9-0-0UFC wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC72%

Donte Johnson is the favourite at 72%. The likeliest single outcome is Donte Johnson by decision (33%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 46%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Johnson is the younger fighter: 27 against 38 on fight night.
Johnson wrestles more, averaging 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.4.
Johnson's rating, built from every UFC result, is 51 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Cesar Almeida: 28% to win

KO/TKO12% overall
Submission3% overall
Decision13% overall

Donte Johnson: 72% to win

KO/TKO30% overall
Submission9% overall
Decision33% overall

Goes the distance: 46% · Fair odds: Cesar Almeida 3.60, Donte Johnson 1.39. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Cesar Almeida	Tale of the tape	Donte Johnson
7-3-0	Record	9-0-0
Brazil	Nationality	USA
7	UFC fights	4
38	Age	27
185 cm	Height	173 cm
188 cm	Reach	188 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
2 / 0 / 2	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	2 / 1 / 1
1 / 0 / 2	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
3.7	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.4
2.5	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.7
0.4	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.7
0.22	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.89

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Cesar Almeida: last UFC fights

2026-07-11vs Damian Pinas R1 4:44L KO/TKO
2025-12-14vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk R3 5:00L DEC
2025-01-12vs Abdul Razak Alhassan R1 4:16W KO/TKO
2024-10-06vs Ihor Potieria R3 5:00W DEC
2024-06-02vs Roman Kopylov R3 5:00L DEC

Won 2 (40%)Lost 3 (60%)

Donte Johnson: last UFC fights

2026-08-15vs Eric McConico R1 1:38W KO/TKO
2026-03-08vs Cody Brundage R3 5:00W DEC
2025-11-01vs Sedriques Dumas R2 1:25W SUB
2025-08-27vs Darion Abbey R1 1:04W KO/TKO

Won 4 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson?: Our model makes Donte Johnson the favourite at 72%, with Cesar Almeida at 28%.
How will Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson end?: The chance it goes the distance is 46%. If Donte Johnson wins, the likeliest route is decision (46% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Cesar Almeida 3.60, Donte Johnson 1.39: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.