Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita prediction
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Saturday, 14 November 2026 · W Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita is the slight favourite at 56%. The likeliest single outcome is Bia Mesquita by decision (24%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 48%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Chiasson is far more experienced in the UFC: 14 fights to 3.
- Chiasson has a 11 cm reach advantage (183 cm vs 171 cm).
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Macy Chiasson: 44% to win
- KO/TKO11% overall
- Submission10% overall
- Decision24% overall
Bia Mesquita: 56% to win
- KO/TKO7% overall
- Submission24% overall
- Decision24% overall
Goes the distance: 48% · Fair odds: Macy Chiasson 2.26, Bia Mesquita 1.79. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Macy Chiasson | Tale of the tape |  Bia Mesquita |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6-0 | Record | 8-0-0 |
| USA | Nationality | Brazil |
| 14 | UFC fights | 3 |
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 180 cm | Height | 163 cm |
| 183 cm | Reach | 171 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 3 / 2 / 3 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 3 / 0 |
| 1 / 1 / 4 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 3.2 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.0 |
| 2.8 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 2.5 |
| 1.8 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.4 |
| 0.21 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.17 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Macy Chiasson: last UFC fights
- 2026-02-28vs Ailin Perez
R3 5:00L DEC - 2025-10-04vs Yana Santos
R3 5:00L DEC - 2025-06-01vs Ketlen Vieira R3 5:00L DEC
- 2024-06-30vs Mayra Bueno Silva R2 1:58W KO/TKO
- 2024-03-16vs Pannie Kianzad R1 3:54W SUB
Bia Mesquita: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-20vs Melissa Mullins
R1 3:16W SUB - 2026-03-14vs Montse Rendon
R1 2:07W SUB - 2025-10-11vs Irina Alekseeva R2 2:14W SUB
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita?
- Our model makes Bia Mesquita the slight favourite at 56%, with Macy Chiasson at 44%.
- How will Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 48%. If Bia Mesquita wins, the likeliest route is decision (44% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Macy Chiasson 2.26, Bia Mesquita 1.79: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
- Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane
- Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison
- Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui
- Kevin Holland vs Uroš Medić
- Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan
- Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
- Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
- Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney
- Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz
- Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson
- Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento
- Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.