Lille OSC vs Racing Club de Lens prediction

Ligue 1 · Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 20:05 UK

Lille OSC vs Racing Club de Lens prediction (Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 20:05 UK): Lille OSC 41% · Draw 27% · Racing Club de Lens 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.38–1.19. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lille vs Lens preview

Lille (4th, 14 pts) host Lens (8th, 10 pts) in the Ligue 1. Lille have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDLWL) and Lens 9 points from 5 (WLWLW). Lens: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Lille 41%, Lens 32%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Lille and 1.19 for Lens, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 53%, while 64% of Ligue 1 matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Lille won 4 and Lens won 1; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Lille OSC vs Racing Club de Lens?

This is close to a coin flip: Lille OSC 41%, Racing Club de Lens 32%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Lille OSC LDLWLW, Racing Club de Lens WLWLWL (latest first).

Lille won 4 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Lille OSC

41%

Draw

27%

Racing Club de Lens

32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Lille home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	73%	27%	1.37
2.5 goals	47%	53%	2.11
3.5 goals	26%	74%	3.88

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Lille OSC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Racing Club de Lens in about 70%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Lens away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.82
No	45%	2.22

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Lille OSC win	41%	2.45
Draw	27%	3.66
Racing Club de Lens win	32%	3.14
Over 2.5	47%	2.11
Under 2.5	53%	1.90

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Lille OSC goals (rows) × Racing Club de Lens goals (columns)
Lille \ Racing	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

2-1

0-1

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lille and Lens played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Lens: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Lens: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lens: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Lille and Lens.

How Lille and Lens compare this season

Stat	Lille (home, 4)	Lens (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	80%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	100% (4/4)	64%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	64%
Win %	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.50	1.75	1.52
Goals against per game	0.75	1.75	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 64 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lille	4	14	7
Lens	8	10	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Lille 4 wins, 0 draws, Lens 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 4 Apr 2026	Ligue 1	Lille v Lens	3–0
Sat, 20 Sept 2025	Ligue 1	Lens v Lille	3–0
Sun, 30 Mar 2025	Ligue 1	Lille v Lens	1–0
Sat, 26 Oct 2024	Ligue 1	Lens v Lille	0–2
Fri, 29 Mar 2024	Ligue 1	Lille v Lens	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lille v Lens?: Our model makes Lille the more likely winner at 41%: Lille 41%, draw 27%, Lens 32%. Lille won 4 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lille v Lens?: Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Lille home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lille and Lens played recently?: Latest first: Lille LDLWL, Lens WLWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
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