La Liga · Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK
Villarreal CF vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona prediction (Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Villarreal CF 59% · Draw 22% · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 2.01–1.06. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Villarreal vs Espanyol preview
Villarreal (12th, 9 pts) host Espanyol (16th, 8 pts) in the La Liga. Villarreal have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLDWL) and Espanyol 1 point from 5 (LLDLL), so Villarreal arrive in clearly better form. Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.
Our model makes Villarreal clear favourites at 59%, with Espanyol at 19%. Expected goals are 2.01 for Villarreal and 1.06 for Espanyol, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).
The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 55%. In their last 5 meetings, Villarreal won all 5; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Villarreal CF vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona?
Villarreal CF are clear favourites at 59%, with RCD Espanyol de Barcelona at 19%. Recent form: Villarreal CF WLDWLW, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona LLDLLW (latest first).
Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.
Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Villarreal home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 81% | 19% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.69 |
| 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | 2.72 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Villarreal CF score in about 87% of simulated outcomes and RCD Espanyol de Barcelona in about 66%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 3 of 4 Villarreal home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 19% | 5.23 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.1 total goals.
| Villarreal \ RCD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Villarreal and Espanyol played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Villarreal and Espanyol.
How Villarreal and Espanyol compare this season
| Stat | Villarreal (home, 4) | Espanyol (away, 4) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% (3/4) | 100% (4/4) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 50% (2/4) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% (2/4) | 0% (0/4) | 39% |
| BTTS | 75% (3/4) | 75% (3/4) | 60% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 25% (1/4) | 43% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.53 |
| Goals against per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.53 |
La Liga average from 90 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| Espanyol | 16 | 8 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Villarreal 5 wins, 0 draws, Espanyol 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 9 Feb 2026 | La Liga | Villarreal v Espanyol | 4–1 |
| Sat, 8 Nov 2025 | La Liga | Espanyol v Villarreal | 0–2 |
| Sun, 27 Apr 2025 | La Liga | Villarreal v Espanyol | 1–0 |
| Thu, 26 Sept 2024 | La Liga | Espanyol v Villarreal | 1–2 |
| Thu, 27 Apr 2023 | La Liga | Villarreal v Espanyol | 4–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Villarreal v Espanyol?
- Our model makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 59%: Villarreal 59%, draw 22%, Espanyol 19%. Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Espanyol?
- Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Villarreal home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Villarreal and Espanyol played recently?
- Latest first: Villarreal WLDWL, Espanyol LLDLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Villarreal CF
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 51% | 24% | 26% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.589% | 51% | 21% | 28% | 73% | 89% | 52% | 61% |
| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.575% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 54% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga | O1.580% | 22% | 24% | 54% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 55% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.575% | 35% | 27% | 39% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 52% |
18:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.581% | 11% | 18% | 71% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 54% |
19:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.580% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 58% | 80% | 35% | 61% |
20:00 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581% | 46% | 24% | 29% | 58% | 81% | 36% | 56% |
20:05 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | U3.574% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 26% | 55% |