Sevilla FC vs CA Osasuna prediction

La Liga · Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Sevilla FC vs CA Osasuna prediction (Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Sevilla FC 45% · Draw 26% · CA Osasuna 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.51–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sevilla vs Osasuna preview

Sevilla (6th, 14 pts) host Osasuna (10th, 11 pts) in the La Liga. Sevilla have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LDLWW) and Osasuna 4 points from 5 (WLDLL). Osasuna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model favours Sevilla at 45% to Osasuna's 29%. Expected goals are 1.51 for Sevilla and 1.17 for Osasuna, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. In their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 1, Osasuna won 2 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Sevilla FC vs CA Osasuna?

Sevilla FC are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a CA Osasuna win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Sevilla FC LDLWWD, CA Osasuna WLDLLL (latest first).

Osasuna lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

Sevilla FC

45%

Draw

26%

CA Osasuna

29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Under 2.5 in 12 of 19 Osasuna away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.33
2.5 goals	50%	50%	2.00
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.57

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Sevilla FC score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and CA Osasuna in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 9 Sevilla games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.85
No	46%	2.17

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Sevilla FC win	45%	2.24
Draw	26%	3.79
CA Osasuna win	29%	3.45
Over 2.5	50%	2.00
Under 2.5	50%	2.00

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sevilla FC goals (rows) × CA Osasuna goals (columns)
Sevilla \ CA	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

2-1

2-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sevilla and Osasuna played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Sevilla, last 5

Sevilla, last 5 at home

Osasuna, last 5

Osasuna, last 5 away

Current streaks

Osasuna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Sevilla: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Sevilla: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Sevilla: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Sevilla have not won in their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Sevilla and Osasuna.

How Sevilla and Osasuna compare this season

Stat	Sevilla (home, 4)	Osasuna (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	76%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	56%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	39%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	60%
Win %	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.50	1.54
Goals against per game	1.75	3.75	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sevilla	6	14	9
Osasuna	10	11	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 1 win, 2 draws, Osasuna 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 26 Apr 2026	La Liga	Osasuna v Sevilla	2–1
Sat, 8 Nov 2025	La Liga	Sevilla v Osasuna	1–0
Thu, 24 Apr 2025	La Liga	Osasuna v Sevilla	1–0
Mon, 2 Dec 2024	La Liga	Sevilla v Osasuna	1–1
Sun, 28 Jan 2024	La Liga	Sevilla v Osasuna	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sevilla v Osasuna?: Our model makes Sevilla the more likely winner at 45%: Sevilla 45%, draw 26%, Osasuna 29%. Osasuna lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sevilla v Osasuna?: Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 12 of 19 Osasuna away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sevilla and Osasuna played recently?: Latest first: Sevilla LDLWW, Osasuna WLDLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaRayo VallecanovElche	U3.579%	44%	28%	27%	69%	42%	21%	51%	42%	69%	21%	51%
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13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
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