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CD Santa Clara crest CD Santa Clara vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica Sport Lisboa e Benfica crest prediction

Primeira Liga · Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 18:45 UK

CD Santa Clara vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica prediction (Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 18:45 UK): CD Santa Clara 18% · Draw 26% · Sport Lisboa e Benfica 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 0-1. Expected goals 0.78–1.61. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Santa Clara vs SL Benfica preview

Santa Clara (4th, 18 pts) host SL Benfica (2nd, 19 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Santa Clara have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (WDWWD) and SL Benfica 12 points from 5 (WLWWW). SL Benfica: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 22 league games.

Our model makes SL Benfica clear favourites at 57%, with Santa Clara at 18%. Expected goals are 0.78 for Santa Clara and 1.61 for SL Benfica, and the most likely score is 0-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 57%, while 56% of Primeira Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Santa Clara didn't win any, SL Benfica won 4 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win CD Santa Clara vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica?

Sport Lisboa e Benfica are clear favourites at 57%, with CD Santa Clara at 18%. Recent form: CD Santa Clara WDWWDW, Sport Lisboa e Benfica WLWWWW (latest first).

SL Benfica won 3 of 4 away games this season.

CD Santa Clara18%
Draw26%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica57%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 Santa Clara games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals69%31%1.44
2.5 goals43%57%2.33
3.5 goals22%78%4.53

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: CD Santa Clara score in about 55% of simulated outcomes and Sport Lisboa e Benfica in about 80%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes48%2.10
No52%1.91

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
CD Santa Clara win18%5.67
Draw26%3.91
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win57%1.76
Over 2.543%2.33
Under 2.557%1.75

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CD Santa Clara goals (rows) × Sport Lisboa e Benfica goals (columns)
CD \ Sport012345
010%14%12%6%3%1%
17%12%9%5%2%1%
23%5%4%2%1%0%
31%1%1%1%0%0%
40%0%0%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
0-114%
1-112%
0-212%
0-010%
1-29%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Santa Clara and SL Benfica played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Santa Clara, last 5
  1. W 1–0 at Casa Pia
  2. D 0–0 v Braga
  3. W 2–1 at Arouca
  4. W 4–0 v Rio Ave
  5. D 1–1 at Alverca
Santa Clara, last 5 at home
  1. D 0–0 v Braga
  2. W 4–0 v Rio Ave
  3. W 1–0 v Famalicão
  4. D 2–2 v Nacional
  5. W 2–0 v Nacional
SL Benfica, last 5
  1. W 2–0 v Vitória
  2. L 1–3 at Porto
  3. W 3–1 v Gil Vicente
  4. W 4–0 at Moreirense
  5. W 3–0 at Marítimo
SL Benfica, last 5 away
  1. L 1–3 at Porto
  2. W 4–0 at Moreirense
  3. W 3–0 at Marítimo
  4. W 7–0 at Casa Pia
  5. W 3–1 at Estoril Praia

Current streaks

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Santa Clara and SL Benfica.

How Santa Clara and SL Benfica compare this season

StatSanta Clara (home, 4)SL Benfica (away, 4)Primeira Liga average
Over 1.550% (2/4)100% (4/4)75%
Over 2.550% (2/4)100% (4/4)56%
Over 3.550% (2/4)75% (3/4)36%
BTTS25% (1/4)25% (1/4)51%
Win %50% (2/4)75% (3/4)39% home · 36% away
Goals for per game1.753.751.38
Goals against per game0.500.751.38

Primeira Liga average from 72 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

TeamPosPtsP
Santa Clara4188
SL Benfica2198

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Santa Clara 0 wins, 1 draw, SL Benfica 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Fri, 13 Feb 2026Primeira LigaSanta Clara v SL Benfica1–2
Fri, 12 Sept 2025Primeira LigaSL Benfica v Santa Clara1–1
Sat, 15 Feb 2025Primeira LigaSanta Clara v SL Benfica0–1
Sat, 14 Sept 2024Primeira LigaSL Benfica v Santa Clara4–1
Sat, 27 May 2023Primeira LigaSL Benfica v Santa Clara3–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Santa Clara v SL Benfica?
Our model makes SL Benfica the more likely winner at 57%: Santa Clara 18%, draw 26%, SL Benfica 57%. SL Benfica won 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santa Clara v SL Benfica?
Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 Santa Clara games this season.
What is the most likely score?
0-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Santa Clara and SL Benfica played recently?
Latest first: Santa Clara WDWWD, SL Benfica WLWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraCF Estrela da Amadora crestAmadoraCasa Pia AC crestCasa PiaU3.576%47%27%25%45%71%24%50%
18:00 · PrimeiraFC Alverca crestAlvercaFC Arouca crestAroucaO1.578%42%26%32%53%78%31%53%
20:30 · PrimeiraGil Vicente FC crestGil VicenteFC Porto crestPortoU3.581%18%27%54%39%66%19%47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraGD Estoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaMoreirense FC crestMoreirenseO1.577%47%26%28%52%77%30%52%
18:00 · PrimeiraCD Nacional crestNacionalSporting Clube de Braga crestBragaO1.576%22%24%54%52%76%30%51%
18:00 · PrimeiraRio Ave FC crestRio AveFC Famalicão crestFamalicãoU3.578%28%28%44%42%69%22%49%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
20:00 · La LigaSevilla FC crestSevillaCA Osasuna crestOsasunaO1.575%45%26%29%50%75%28%54%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCoritiba FBC crestCoritibaGrêmio FBPA crestGrêmioO1.578%38%26%36%54%78%31%53%
23:00 · BrasileirãoCR Flamengo crestFlamengoCA Mineiro crestMineiroO1.574%62%23%15%49%74%27%49%