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CR Flamengo crest CR Flamengo vs CA Mineiro CA Mineiro crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 23:00 UK

CR Flamengo vs CA Mineiro prediction (Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 23:00 UK): CR Flamengo 62% · Draw 23% · CA Mineiro 15%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.85–0.79. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Flamengo vs Mineiro preview

Flamengo (1st, 67 pts) host Mineiro (6th, 50 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Flamengo have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (WWDWW) and Mineiro 11 points from 5 (WWDWD). Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites at 62%, with Mineiro at 15%. Expected goals are 1.85 for Flamengo and 0.79 for Mineiro, and the most likely score is 1-0 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 49%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 3, Mineiro didn't win any and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Flamengo to win is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win CR Flamengo vs CA Mineiro?

CR Flamengo are clear favourites at 62%, with CA Mineiro at 15%. Recent form: CR Flamengo WWDWWW, CA Mineiro WWDWDW (latest first).

Flamengo won 11 of 15 home games this season.

CR Flamengo62%
Draw23%
CA Mineiro15%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 9 of 15 Mineiro away games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals74%26%1.34
2.5 goals49%51%2.03
3.5 goals27%73%3.67

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: CR Flamengo score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and CA Mineiro in about 55%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes49%2.05
No51%1.95

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
CR Flamengo win62%1.61
Draw23%4.39
CA Mineiro win15%6.66
Over 2.549%2.03
Under 2.551%1.97

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CR Flamengo goals (rows) × CA Mineiro goals (columns)
CR \ CA012345
08%5%2%1%0%0%
113%11%4%1%0%0%
212%10%4%1%0%0%
38%6%2%1%0%0%
44%3%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-013%
2-012%
1-111%
2-110%
3-08%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Flamengo and Mineiro played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Flamengo, last 5
  1. W 3–0 at Bahia
  2. W 1–0 v Fluminense
  3. D 2–2 at Santos
  4. W 2–1 v Bragantino
  5. W 2–1 v Corinthians
Flamengo, last 5 at home
  1. W 1–0 v Fluminense
  2. W 2–1 v Bragantino
  3. W 2–1 v Corinthians
  4. W 2–0 v Mirassol
  5. W 3–0 v Botafogo
Mineiro, last 5
  1. W 1–0 v Coritiba
  2. W 2–1 v Santos
  3. D 2–2 at Paranaense
  4. W 1–0 v Bragantino
  5. D 1–1 v Chapecoense
Mineiro, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Paranaense
  2. L 0–2 at São Paulo
  3. D 0–0 at Internacional
  4. D 2–2 at Clube do Remo
  5. W 2–1 at Palmeiras

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Flamengo and Mineiro.

How Flamengo and Mineiro compare this season

StatFlamengo (home, 15)Mineiro (away, 15)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.593% (14/15)60% (9/15)78%
Over 2.553% (8/15)40% (6/15)51%
Over 3.513% (2/15)27% (4/15)26%
BTTS40% (6/15)33% (5/15)59%
Win %73% (11/15)27% (4/15)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.931.001.33
Goals against per game0.671.201.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Flamengo16731
Mineiro65031

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins, 2 draws, Mineiro 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Mon, 27 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AMineiro v Flamengo0–4
Wed, 26 Nov 2025Brasileirão Série AMineiro v Flamengo1–1
Mon, 28 Jul 2025Brasileirão Série AFlamengo v Mineiro1–0
Wed, 13 Nov 2024Brasileirão Série AFlamengo v Mineiro0–0
Thu, 4 Jul 2024Brasileirão Série AMineiro v Flamengo2–4

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Flamengo v Mineiro?
Our model makes Flamengo the more likely winner at 62%: Flamengo 62%, draw 23%, Mineiro 15%. Flamengo won 11 of 15 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Flamengo v Mineiro?
Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 9 of 15 Mineiro away games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Flamengo and Mineiro played recently?
Latest first: Flamengo WWDWW, Mineiro WWDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraCD Santa Clara crestSanta ClaraSport Lisboa e Benfica crestSL BenficaU3.578%18%26%57%43%69%22%48%
20:00 · La LigaSevilla FC crestSevillaCA Osasuna crestOsasunaO1.575%45%26%29%50%75%28%54%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCoritiba FBC crestCoritibaGrêmio FBPA crestGrêmioO1.578%38%26%36%54%78%31%53%