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CA Mineiro crest CA Mineiro vs Coritiba FBC Coritiba FBC crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK

Full-time: CA Mineiro 1–0 Coritiba FBC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave CA Mineiro a 53% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 11% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

CA Mineiro vs Coritiba FBC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): CA Mineiro 53% · Draw 25% · Coritiba FBC 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.73–1.03. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Mineiro vs Coritiba pre-match preview

Mineiro (6th, 50 pts) host Coritiba (12th, 39 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Mineiro have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (WDWDW) and Coritiba 2 points from 5 (DLLDL), so Mineiro arrive in clearly better form. Mineiro are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Mineiro clear favourites at 53%, with Coritiba at 22%. Expected goals are 1.73 for Mineiro and 1.03 for Coritiba, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 51%. In their last 4 meetings, Mineiro won 2 and Coritiba won 2; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Mineiro to win is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win CA Mineiro vs Coritiba FBC?

CA Mineiro are clear favourites at 53%, with Coritiba FBC at 22%. Recent form: CA Mineiro WDWDWL, Coritiba FBC DLLDLW (latest first).

Mineiro won 10 of 16 home games this season.

CA Mineiro53%
Draw25%
Coritiba FBC22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals77%23%1.31
2.5 goals52%48%1.92
3.5 goals30%70%3.35

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: CA Mineiro score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and Coritiba FBC in about 65%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 10 of 16 Mineiro home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.94
No49%2.06

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
CA Mineiro win53%1.87
Draw25%4.07
Coritiba FBC win22%4.53
Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CA Mineiro goals (rows) × Coritiba FBC goals (columns)
CA \ Coritiba012345
07%6%3%1%0%0%
111%12%6%2%1%0%
29%10%5%2%0%0%
35%6%3%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
1-011%
2-110%
2-09%
0-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Mineiro and Coritiba played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Mineiro, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Santos
  2. D 2–2 at Paranaense
  3. W 1–0 v Bragantino
  4. D 1–1 v Chapecoense
  5. W 3–1 v Fluminense
Mineiro, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–1 v Santos
  2. W 1–0 v Bragantino
  3. D 1–1 v Chapecoense
  4. W 3–1 v Fluminense
  5. W 2–1 v Vitória
Coritiba, last 5
  1. D 1–1 v Botafogo
  2. L 0–4 at Fluminense
  3. L 0–5 at Vasco da Gama
  4. D 3–3 v Paranaense
  5. L 1–2 v Mirassol
Coritiba, last 5 away
  1. L 0–4 at Fluminense
  2. L 0–5 at Vasco da Gama
  3. W 3–2 at Clube do Remo
  4. D 1–1 at São Paulo
  5. D 0–0 at Bragantino

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Mineiro and Coritiba.

How Mineiro and Coritiba compare this season

StatMineiro (home, 16)Coritiba (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.575% (12/16)75% (12/16)78%
Over 2.556% (9/16)56% (9/16)51%
Over 3.531% (5/16)38% (6/16)26%
BTTS63% (10/16)38% (6/16)59%
Win %63% (10/16)31% (5/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.691.131.33
Goals against per game1.061.811.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Mineiro65031
Coritiba123931

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Mineiro 2 wins, 0 draws, Coritiba 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 19 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série ACoritiba v Mineiro2–0
Sun, 8 Oct 2023Brasileirão Série AMineiro v Coritiba1–2
Sat, 20 May 2023Brasileirão Série ACoritiba v Mineiro1–2
Sun, 14 Aug 2022Brasileirão Série ACoritiba v Mineiro0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Mineiro v Coritiba?
Our model makes Mineiro the more likely winner at 53%: Mineiro 53%, draw 25%, Coritiba 22%. Mineiro won 10 of 16 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mineiro v Coritiba?
Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Mineiro and Coritiba played recently?
Latest first: Mineiro WDWDW, Coritiba DLLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassol2SC Internacional crestInternacional0U3.574%✓48%✓26%✕25%✕48%✕73%✓26%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampMillwall FC crestMillwall2Lincoln City FC crestLincoln City2U3.578%✕62%✕24%✓14%✕43%✓70%✓22%✓48%✓
FT · EFL ChampMiddlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough2Cardiff City FC crestCardiff2O1.581%✓61%✕22%✓18%✕58%✓81%✓36%✓54%✓
FT · EFL ChampWatford FC crestWatford2Charlton Athletic FC crestCharlton0U3.582%✓39%✓30%✕31%✕37%✕65%✓18%✕50%✕
FT · Premier LgEverton FC crestEverton0Chelsea FC crestChelsea2O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✕75%✓28%✕57%✕